Well, the debacle in Ukraine has managed to stop my blogs in their tracks. I have been avoiding chiming in on Ukraine, and nothing else seems particularly relevant – so I have gone silent. However, that can’t go on forever – I once more feel compelled to throw some of my thoughts into the ring.

One of the questions leading to my hesitancy to speak out has been along the lines “why isn’t Ukraine part of NATO?” There are lots of discussions flying around about this question, not the least of which is that Putin doesn’t cotton to the idea. But, so what if he doesn’t want them to join? A rumor is passing around that we made a “deal” with the Russians when the fall of the Berlin Wall and he is holding us to that deal. Apparently this is a rumor only, that was not part of the negotiations concerning the Berlin Wall. (I may be wrong about this – but so far that is what I have turned up). The only really solid reason that I have found for Ukraine not being accepted into NATO has to do with the Ukraine military being under military control rather than civilian control. (The “code” words on this topic are needing a “civil government”). My understanding that membership requires that the military be governed by the parliament instead of the President. Apparently Ukraine has been unwilling to implement that change in their constitution. I suppose their hesitancy harks back to their recent membership in the USSR where a military under exclusive control of the leader is the norm. Of course, that is exactly the reason that the war in Ukraine is so very, very dangerous.

So now there is a problem that doesn’t seem to have a good solution. Ukraine isn’t part of NATO, therefore there are no legally binding agreements to defend them. For this reason Russia (Putin – the sole leader of the military) has taken the position that NATO is only allowed to protect NATO countries, and any actions beyond that are an act of offensive war (rather than defensive war if they were protecting a NATO member country). Gads, we are now in a very dangerous game of “chicken” – and Putin has a long history of not being the one to swerve.

Clearly, NATO countries providing arms, aid and training are dancing on the edges of the problem of supporting Putin’s enemies. Perhaps without direct boots-on-the-ground support, or aircraft, but very close in any case. It reminds me of the experiment known as “tickling the dragon’s tail.” This link provides a good description of the “experiment” https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/04/tickling-the-dragons-tail-plutonium-time-bomb/557006/ Basically, the point was to see just how close to total disaster you can get without setting off the nuclear bomb “gadget”. We seem to be playing the same game today, but with thousands of nuclear bombs rather than just a bit of radiation that kills the experimenter. Mankind is amazingly willing to get risk annihilation in the name of pride. Our big brains come with extreme risks.

Assuming we manage to avoid an all-out war, what should we (the global community) be doing? Clearly the safest approach for Ukrainians would be for Ukraine to give in, join their neighbor, and hope for an opportunity to increase their freedoms at a later time. However, NATO (and others) are fearful that if that happens then Putin will know that he can win any game of chicken that he might want to play – not a good thing in the future.

At the moment, my thought is that perhaps we can find a way to enforce a safe evacuation, letting those in Ukraine that want to leave a way out. Putin claims that most Ukrainians want to join back up with Russia – so maybe that is what happens. Those that don’t want to join Russia, leave. Those that do, stay. We help those that leave get resettled, and Russia helps those that stay rebuild their country again. It would be interesting to see how many leave and how many stay. However, I can’t imagine such a scenario playing out.

Unfortunately, it appears that no good solution is to be found. Russia will continue bombing, Ukraine will continue to be demolished and their citizens killed, and eventually Russia will control the region. Hopefully we will manage to avoid an all-out war (with, or without, nuclear weapons) because the costs of the escalation to a full blown war will far outweigh the loses in Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine can hold out long enough that the Russian’s realize that they can’t afford to continue. That happened in Afghanistan. I believe that one of the main reasons that Russia wanted to take over Afghanistan was to obtain a secure route to the oceans for their oil pipelines. They didn’t manage to accomplish that because of local push-back, and they finally gave it up. Too bad we decided to jump in an join the fun. Now it appears that Russia is looking for a secure route to the Black Sea through Ukraine (it is an economic decision). If the Ukrainians can hold out long enough perhaps Putin will realize that the price is higher than the value of the access to the sea.

One of Russia’s big problems is that it has become essentially landlocked with no good sea ports. This is a huge problem for the country, and for their ability to maintain global power and a flourishing economy. It is also a huge problem for us because Putin is attempting to find a solution and any cost. Putin is doing whatever he can to solve this problem, as we are seeing played out in the current war and the history of Russia attempting to break through to the oceans.