Today we are in the middle of the first full blown three day weekend of the pandemic. There have been some small scale tests in the past each of which resulted in large spikes of infections. This time we are testing the effectiveness of the vaccination program on a rather large scale. Watching the news showing packed freeways, airplanes and beaches is rather terrorizing for me. Clearly there is a very big urge for a great many people to once again test their idea that we are finally over the danger of the virus. The ideas of masking, social distancing, and sanitation have clearly gone out the window. In fact, it appears as if people are getting much closer and more tightly packed groups than prior to the pandemic. That is a great thing, the test would not be definitive if they sort of half-hardheartedly kept some of the protocols in place – we wouldn’t know if the test was testing those looser protocols, or if we really are getting beyond the danger.

Now that the initial part of the test have been completed with a great deal of across-country mixing, and a lot of up-close and personal social contact among strangers it is now time for the “rise” stage of the fermentation. We have three weeks to watch and see the shape and size of the new spike that is sure to come. If it is just a minor bump that is easily absorbed by the heath care system it might be a good indicator that we are finally past the worst of it. I think we now have as many “high risk” folks vaccinated as are going to be vaccinated. There are still many in that group who have refused, but as long as they don’t overwhelm the health care system they aren’t important. They will either die or not, as they have so clearly expressed – that is their choice. Perhaps the necessary improvements have been made in the health care system to effectively treat the remainder of the population. We’ll find out about this in a month or so.

So I would like to thank those dedicated risk takers who are so willing to participate in this large test. Without you the rest of us would have a difficult time judging where we stand in the pandemic and the risks that we are all still facing. It is interesting that globally there are a few other large scale tests underway that indicate continued high risks. Currently the ones most in the news are Brazil, India and Japan. They are proven that the virus is still widespread and extremely active. Brazil is an example of a country that just didn’t believe the science so pretty much ignored the protocols. India seems to believe in the science but has been economically and politically unable, or unwilling, to put the necessary precautions in place. I find that Japan is an interesting exception because they were so proud that they immediately accepted the problem, took extreme measures at following the initial protocols and had extremely low infection rates for most of the year of the pandemic. Now Japan is spiking and apparently having an extremely difficult time of it. I don’t understand what happened to change their risk profile so profoundly at this late date.

While it is not particularly “fun” to be in the middle of a giant science experiment, such as is happening this weekend, it is certainly interesting from many points of view.