I want to apologize right at the beginning for yet another covid/vaccine posting. I know we are all getting tired of talking about it, but since this has come up again with some of my friends I think another shot at describing what is happening with the vaccines is in order.

There is a LOT of hope being put on the vaccines putting the pandemic behind us. I share in that hope, but realize it is likely to take much longer than people want to consider. As I have discussed previously, the vaccines where designed and tested to determine if they are effective in preventing illness (symptoms) given an exposure to the virus. They did not design, or test, it for effectiveness at preventing infection or spread (transmission). Designing and testing to ensure effectiveness against infection and spreading is a MUCH more difficult and time consuming task, on the order of additional years of effort. So what they have come up with is something that has been shown to be “safe” (whatever that means in this case) and “effective” (preventing symptoms in infected people). That is really great news for those who have a high probability of exposure such as medical personnel and first responders (police, firemen, EMT). Vaccinating enough of them (about 10M people) will provide the kind of statistical evidence needed to determine whether or not it is effective in stopping the spread (transmission) of the virus. As I mentioned in a previous post, there is substantial evidence that it will prevent transmission, but there are still many unknowns that could get in the way.

For the time being, they are planning on starting by vaccinating something in the neighborhood of 20M people by the end of January. That sounds like a LOT (and it is) but it is also only about 6% of the population of the USA. Assuming it works to stop symptoms, that means that there are still about 300M people who haven’t yet been infected, but who still can be. Given the speed with which covid-19 spreads without adequate protection, that can easily reach another 100M – 200M people by the time vaccinations are widespread, resulting in 5M to 10M additional deaths and untold numbers of persons with extremely serious and long lasting aftereffects. We are FAR from the end of the tunnel., in fact we have not yet begun the real brutish part of the pandemic.

My concern is that all the news reports these days are acting like “happy days” are here again and the pandemic has been put on the run. If people get the idea that this means they can let down their defenses (which they still haven’t put up to a level that is required), it is very likely that the pandemic will really explode, overwhelming the health care systems and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions of people. In order for this to work we need people to double (and triple) down in their efforts at isolation, masking and hand sanitizing. If they can hold out for another year, there will be time to finish the “experiment” to see if the vaccine(s) prevent transmission, and time for the vast number of people to have been vaccinated. Then it will be “happy days” again, but not until then. Premature letting down of our defenses WILL result in terrible things.

So my recommendation is to stay in “protection” mode until after being given the “all clear” based upon monitoring and testing. Take the vaccine if you feel it is safe enough, but don’t think that will prevent you from catching the virus, or spreading it to your loved ones. Watch what is happening, but don’t get overly optimistic until such time as more research and evidence shows that we have gotten past the problem. This might end up not working nearly as well as it is hoped, but at least it is a major step along the way. I think the bottom line is something like, “Hang in there folks, it will eventually get better if you stay protected long enough to get past it.”