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Two sleeps

I came upon an interesting “fact” when reading the book “Wild Nights Out – The magic of Exploring the Outdoors after Dark” by Chris Salisbury. I don’t know if it is actually a scientific “fact”, but Mr. Salisbury made the following statement; “In the pre-industrial era, and across the world, it was the common habit to have ‘two sleeps’ during the night, interrupted by a brief passage of time in the middle, for all sorts of nocturnal activity. Our assumption of the need for a continuous night of sleep, it appears, is a more modern phenomenon.”

I found this idea to be interesting for a number of reason, not the least is that I have been doing that for many years. My nightly habit is to go to bed early sleep for a few hours, wake and do things until I am fully awake, then head back to bed for another few hours – getting up again in the pre-dawn hours. My wife does the same, usually “shifted” from my schedule by an hour or so. It is not unusual to get up and get a glass of milk and a bite to eat, perhaps read for awhile or possibly write things such as this blog. Sometimes I go outside to check out the weather and such. I am thinking that perhaps I should set up my small telescope so it is easy to do a bit of star gazing. After a half-hour to an hour I am sleepy again, ready to finish the night – waking early to start another day.

I noticed a similar behavior in a small Australian aboriginal village I visited a few years ago. The Natives Australians slept outside using their houses to store stuff – but not to live in, while the rest of us slept inside of our houses. The town would be abuzz with chatter and kids playing until around 9:00 pm, and then become quiet until around 1:00 am, at which point I could hear small groups of people chanting, singing, and drumming – it seemed to be a quiet “mystical/spiritual” time for some of the adults. I never got up to go see what was actually going on, but the singing and chanting was a nightly event. Soon all was quiet again until around sunrise when the town began to wake up with the usual daytime chatter and activities.

I am heartened to hear that my nighttime activities are perhaps “normal” for some cultures. Modern medicine keeps saying that I “should” get eight hours of uninterrupted sleep a night, or more. I haven’t done that since I was perhaps forty years old. I wonder if the “two sleep” approach isn’t perhaps hardwired into our genetics. A story I made up that I find amusing (and interesting) is that perhaps the two-sleeps pattern is an important element of our survival stemming from when a real and constant danger might be being eaten by a large predator. In that environment it would be most advantageous to make sure that someone is always on watch, keeping the fire going and being ready to sound the alarm if need be.

My fantasy about this is that young children go to bed early and sleep through the night because it isn’t safe for them to be roaming around after dark – far better that they are silent and asleep. Once children reach adolescence they seem to like to stay up late into the night, thus keeping an eye out for danger (or perhaps creating it themselves in the tradition of “kids will be kids”) while the older folks get their first sleep of the night. When the adolescents finally go to sleep it is time for the old folks to wake and begin their middle-of-the-night activities, perhaps solo or in groups – taking their shift at guarding the group. The oldsters, such as myself, awaken from their second sleep in the pre-dawn hours (I get up around 4:30 am) to quietly begin to do things to start the day – in my case I meditate, check out the weather and things outside, perhaps start the coffee and take a shower as the rest of the family slowly begin their day.

I like this story (even if it is mostly false) because it reminds me that we are just animals, and that as animals we have built-in actions and biological rhythms (such as the 24 hour circadian rhythm). It reminds me that perhaps it is best to pay attention to what our body wants to do “naturally” instead of trying to force it into a mode of operation based upon artificial needs such as when the factory shift begins or the bus arrives. Of course, this is all much easier to do now that I am retired and have few artificial time constraints. For example, one of my favorite things to do is to take a nap – especially one starting at around 9:00 am. A morning nap is a very delicious thing.

DEF (Diesel Exhaust Fluid) Shortage?

This blog discussion requires a rather long introduction to put the rest into perspective. Sorry about that. The part that I am most interested in has to do with how the news media is being misused to “brain wash” many of those on the “weird right” (believers in obviously fake news). I happened to chase the story of DEF down the rabbit hole, but the same approach to falsifying news without adding lies is being widely used for a great many topics. I hope that if you hang in there you will find this as interesting as I do.

A couple of nights ago I was having dinner at a Northern California bar and grill style restaurant when I got into a discussion with a guy who was complaining that the high price of diesel was putting him out of business. It turned out that he is in the tow truck business (he sounded like an owner of a tow truck business, but might have just been a driver). He said that his fuel costs when from about $600 a month to $1100 a month during the past few months because of the sharp increase in the cost of diesel. Similar stories are common, so I accepted his story as true and hoped he would continue – which he did. He told me that he friends that owned and operated logging trucks who already quit because of fuel costs, as that many long-haul truckers are going out of business as well.

That sounded true, and was a sad situation. Then he opened up and “explained” why the prices were increasing so dramatically – it is because the government forced the shippers to stop shipping sufficient DEF for their trucks. His idea is that this created a shortage of DEF, which resulted in truckers not being able to obtain this for their trucks, meaning they couldn’t purchase enough diesel, resulting in sky-high fuel prices. He said that there is actually plenty of diesel and DEF, but that Biden’s regulations on the shipment of DEF created an artificial shortage and hence the increase fuel prices. He pointed out that without DEF and without some specific chemicals used in engine oil the trucking industry would grind to a halt (as if there was some sort of concern that this might happen). He then pointed out that all of this is caused by unnecessary regulations to protect the environment. None of this made much sense to me, so I told him that it sounded like “fake news” to me, and that thanked him for the information, promising to “check it out” further. His parting comment was to not use “Google” to do my research because the truth can’t be found there.

A bit of background might help here. DEF (sometimes sold under the name of AdBlue) is a mixture of 1/3 urea and 2/3 water (with a bit of blue coloring) that creates a catalytic reactions when sprayed into the exhaust diesel engines. It reduces the amount of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in emitted by the vehicle – resulting in less air pollution. In 2007 the EPA required a significant reduction in emissions from diesel engines. Many diesel engine manufacturers met the new regulations by adding a requirement for the use of DEF in the exhaust system. Prior to the introduction of DEF they met the EPA requirements by adjusting the fuel-air mixtures to the engines, which lowered fuel mileage. The use of DEF allowed them to re-adjust the engines, getting even better fuel mileage than before the introduction of the EPA requirements.

In order to meet the EPA requirements, truck manufacturers added “features” that limit the speed of the truck to 5 MPH when the DEF tank is empty, and shut off the engine entirely after a short distance. Basically, while the trucks run fine without DEF (because it is just added to the exhaust), they don’t run at all without it. (I don’t know what keeps truckers from adding water to their DEF tanks and heading down the road – perhaps nothing except “good will” keeps them from doing that?)

It takes about 2 gallons of DEF to treat 100 gallons of diesel, and costs about $10.00 per gallon, thus adding about $0.20 per gallon for diesel fuel – but saves more than that in increased mileage. The resent increase in the price of DEF has increased the price from about $9/gallon to about $13/gallon adding an additional $0.08 to the price of fuel. This is a long ways from the tow truck driver’s claim of doubling the price of diesel – and probably isn’t putting anyone out of business.

It turns out that the tow truck driver was correct, there is no shortage of DEF at the supply end (sort of), but there is a restriction to shipping urea from the manufacturing plant to the plants that turn the urea into fertilizer and DEF (along with a few other products). However, the restriction isn’t caused by the government, it was created by Union Pacific (railroad) limiting the number of privately owned rail cars they are willing to haul because they found themselves under staffed and short of locomotives due to the impacts of covid. In order to meet their contracts they decided to limit the number of private rails cars they would haul – a reduction to 80% of what they were doing. The urea companies use their own rail tankers, so found themselves with a 20% reduction in supply. This did not result in a reduction in the production of DEF, but did result in a reduction in the production of fertilizer – impacting farmers across the the country. So yes, there is a short term reduction in urea availability while the rail situation gets straightened out, and no there is not a shortage of DEF resulting in anyone not being able to run their trucks.

So now I can finally get to what I consider the interesting part of the story.

I searched online for topics about DEF shortages and found an interesting selection of items. I first found a lot about diesel engines, the EPA requirements, and urea sources and uses. Just standard “facts” with nothing specific about shortages. An item that I didn’t mention above is that Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of urea, followed closely by China. The USA is a big importer of urea. It is main component of fertilizer, many explosives, DEF, and is a feedstock for wide variety of chemicals.

I then found a lot of interesting articles concerning the shipping induced shortages of urea in the United States (the main subject of the tow truck driver’s discussion). I found many articles that contained the same quoted materials, but with many different spins. I think I found the original source in a New York Times article that discussed the importance of urea for the agricultural and trucking industries, noting that urea in the form of DEF is used to control pollution and that a shortages of this or other chemicals used in diesel engine oil could cripple the users of diesel powered trucks. The article discussed the fact that Union Pacific put a limit on the number of private cars that is would haul, limiting the availability of urea to many industries, particularly the fertilizer manufactures. It didn’t say that there is a shortage for use as DEF, just pointed out that they are critical to keeping things moving. This article then went on to talk about the causes of the shortage, noting that there was an on-going union dispute that is resulting in worker shortages, short staffing because of covid, an increase in shipping demand in part caused by covid, and the fact that a reduction in train transportation during the past decade had caused them to reduce their rolling stock. All of that combined at the same time resulted in delays, bottle necks and many shipping problems. In an attempt to straighten that out Union Pacific brought 50 more locomotives on line, hired a bunch of new employees, and managed the flow of business on their lines – including limiting the number of privately owned rail cars that they accepted.

This long and seemingly true story was reproduced in part by a number of other publications, including Newsweek. However, these other publications didn’t reprint the entire article, just the part about DEF (and other chemicals) being critical for transportation, and that Union Pacific is limited shipping of urea (it is the company doing this, not the government). Some of these derivative articles included a discussion pointing out that the cost of DEF has risen by close to 150% during the past few months (without indicating that this amounts to an increase of less than 2% <about $0.10 per gallon> in the increased cost of diesel fuel).

And then the magic happened! These basically true, but incomplete, articles were picked up and reprinted by many “fact challenged” publications. While most of them accurately reprinted the entire NewsWeek version, they added a few things such as introductions implying that the “shortage” of DEF has caused the increase in fuel costs to the present $7/gallon (not true), or that the “shortage” has stopped trucks from operating (not true), or that the reduction in shipping was ordered by Biden (not true), and many more. These are introduced as just comments along the lines of “perhaps these things are happening”, not “facts.” In addition to distracting introductions, they break up the original story into many small parts interspersed with Tweets on various topics about how horrible Biden is, how wonderful Trump is, how all kinds of things spouting hate and lies – but they are clearly not part of “the article” – they are just things that perhaps somebody somewhere might have said. The real article is there, but it is quite difficult to find because you have to keep skipping over all of the injected material.

It is clear that these inserts are read by many as part of, and of the same value, as the main body of the article. I say that because the tow truck driver was very good and accurate about telling me many of these false and nasty claims, giving them as much value and “truth” as the other parts. There is no “filter” operating for these folks – nothing to sort out what they would like to hear (but is false) from what they might not like to hear (but is true). They don’t seem to know how to step back and realize that there are various sources of various quality at work in the things that they use to “study” a problem.

Colonizing other planets

I heard a discussion on the radio this morning suggesting that humanity isn’t in all that much trouble because we can always save ourselves by creating a “life raft” to colonize distant planets once we have truly and totally destroyed this one. The idea completely floored me, but it isn’t the first time I have heard it. Being able to do this means that we don’t have to do anything about global warming, or excessive pollution, or over population, over fishing, … etc, etc. Many people seem to believe that while those things might end up making the earth uninhabitable to humans we are clever animals and can always start over again somewhere else.

Ignoring the huge problems associated with finding a suitable planet close enough for people to survive the trip in enough generations to prevent those travelers from transform into some other species through mutations happening along the way – what makes anyone think that we could be more successful in creating a new world, populated by a civilization that is any better than the one we have? Currently, we live on a pretty nice planet that has everything we could ever need already here. We have literally evolved together with the planet and therefore are as close to a perfect match that you could image – but we don’t seem to understand the value of what is here. We just trash it as if it is an old beer can that can just be discarded along the roadside while we reach for another.

If we can’t find the means to maintain what is already here, how could we possibly do better with a new one that DOES NOT meet our needs because we did not evolve together. The new one might be populated with plants and animals (and perhaps other things), but they won’t suit us. We will have to change that planet using our great wisdom and “smarts”. We don’t seem to be able to do it now, and won’t be able to accomplish the MUCH more difficult task of starting from scratch.

I know this is just a silly idea, but unfortunately there are many people that use these types of crazy concepts as an excuse for continuing to foster our “God given right” to destroy whatever it is that we feel like destroying in the name of short term, selfish desires. “Not to worry, we are capable of doing anything” (except manage what we already have). Having dominion over every living thing does not mean destroy it all, it means taking care to keep it healthy. Because of some unfortunate accidents of nature, we are in a place where we can destroy or protect. I think the Bible is referring to our ability to protect.

Was the last President a Grifter?

I have been watching the hearings on the January 6 insurrection with great interest. I find it amazing how so many people in high places just stepped aside and let what appears to be insanity reign. It appears that our government has so many “traditions” about relationships and power that it is practically impossible to step in when things are obviously going off the rails. It is astounding how much a person can get away with just by doing it.

When I heard about the small donations ($250,000,000 and still growing) going to a non-existent organization to stop a non-existent fraud that is not stealing an election I immediately thought about the old grifters (sometimes referred to as swindlers or snake-oil salesmen) that used to ply the wild west in the late 1800’s. Many stories (and movies) talk about these folks (usually men, but not always) that would ride or roll into town, set up a stage or business front and go to work bilking the population of the town our of their money and their land. These swindles usually required four parties to be successful. The first of course is the grifter (swindler)- telling tall tales, spinning all manner of lies, and working up the emotions of the audience. As part of the scam, there were usually shills within the audience that looked and acted like the rest of the audience (line “normal” or “important” people), who were in on the deal. They were important accomplices to the grifter because without their insistence that the lies were “facts” nobody would believe the lies and the shady deal would not go forward.

The shills do this because of shared profits from the scam, and possible future profits once the grifter has moved on. They know the grifter is telling lies, they know what will happen to those that buy into the scam, but they don’t care because they are getting easy money and fame. They share in the spoils but don’t have to look like the bad guy when the scam is over and the town is poorer.

There were also the “marks” – those that believed the story and put their hard earned cash on the barrel head, purchasing the bogus product. The marks buy in because of their greed, or fear. They see a deal that is “too good to be true” that will solve their problems, even though the deep down recognize the high risks involved. They usually know that it really is too good to be true, but what if it is true? They don’t want to miss such an opportunity. They are giddy and excited that they are filling going to get what they want, they are finally going to “get away” with something. Once they bought into the lie, they then picked up the role of informal (unpaid) shill because they can’t admit that they had been duped. At that point their honor (or helping their family, friends and neighbors) becomes more important than truth because don’t want to “lose face”.

And then, of course, there is the rest of the population of the town that saw through the scam, but didn’t take action to stop it. They were innocent bystanders standing by, the wives and mothers and little children, gossiping about how obviously the big lies are, laughing at the stupidity of the marks, but standing by – even when the marks were their spouses and were spending family money.

All four of these players are required for the success of the grifter. We seem to have this playing out on a very big stage in America (and much of the world). The swindler of the moment is obviously Donald Trump. He is standing up in front of the crowds, working their emotions, working their fears, working their greed – telling them anything whatsoever to further the goal of bilking the marks out of their livelihoods and more. There seems to be no lie big enough, no story false enough or harmful enough to prevent the telling. The shills are obvious and vocal. They are excited because they are heading for fame and fortune that they didn’t work for, don’t deserve and wouldn’t get without the presence of the grifter. All they have to do is echo the lies for money and power to come their way. The shills are in the form of senators and congressmen, supreme court lawyers, lower court lawyers, newscasters, ministers, policemen and teachers. They wear the trappings of “important” people, but are shills nevertheless. They know recognize the scam, but are in on it for their own greed.

The marks are obvious. They have felt downtrodden, ignored, oppressed by society. The swindler is telling them that it can all change, they can get back to a “Great America” (the point of MAGA) (as if there was ever a time like their fantasies). It isn’t that America will be great again, it is that THEY will be great – not AGAIN (because it and they were never great like in their imaginations), but they think they will FINALLY be great. They will have money, power, no taxes, no giving to anyone, high paying jobs, free gasoline, free roads and services, respect from everyone, their women will think of them as macho-men, they will be strong, and smart and successful – and all the rest will finally be squashed under their shoe. The marks are hoping to get what they never could dream of having, all for little or nothing – as the grifter takes their money and runs.

The Value of a College Degree

I was reading some posts on Quora this morning and came upon this question; ” Are people who graduated college with non-professional degrees and can’t get a job really shocked that they can’t get a decent paying job with their degree?” My first thought is that anyone who uses the phrase “graduated college” instead of “graduated from college” is suspect from the get go. Lack of fundamental language skills is going to be a problem. My second thought is wondering what is meant by a “non-professional degree”. As I think through my college catalogue I can’t think of any non-professional degrees – as far as I know they all can lead to a profession, even if that profession is primarily teaching. There are no “non-professional” degrees.

However, while the question doesn’t seem to make much sense, I think it is getting at an interesting question of whether or not a degree is about getting a job in a particular field, or about something else more fundamental (and valuable) than that. My understanding is that “non-professional” jobs are probably trade related jobs. There are trade schools for the purpose of learning a trade with the intention of getting a job in that trade. Many Community Colleges and apprenticeship programs specialize in training for a specific job or specific trade. Of course many universities also focus on future jobs, but that is in addition to gaining a general education. For example, medical schools are in the business of creating doctors, forestry departments are creating foresters etc. However, most departments are doing something a little different – they are in the business of providing knowledge and skills useful for learning more. It is more about learning a way of thinking than it is about a specific body of knowledge.

My degree in physics certainly didn’t provide an education sufficient to get me a job as a physicist – it helped me gain knowledge that is indispensable for a physicist, but while that is necessary – it is not sufficient. There is still a lot of “experience” required to get a professional job as a physicist. With my degree in physics I have a background that when coupled with appropriate experience (scientific and life experiences), enthusiasm and personality helped open many doors – most of which have nothing to do with physics. The same seems to be true of all college degrees. It is just like with high school – it provides a necessary background but only allows opportunities to step onto a path forward, it is not sufficient on its own.

I wonder if perhaps the main value of a college degree is providing a background and approach to problem solving that allows a person to be accepted into a social group (network) of people that act as “gatekeepers” to a profession. If this is the case, then perhaps the “fluff” courses (English, math, basic science, history, music, theater, philosophy, etc) are as important, or often more important, than the core courses in a major field. These courses result in a much more “rounded” knowledge forming the basis of commonality, and community, with those in a chosen field. Not only can we talk about physics, but perhaps we can talk about music, history, world politics, psychology, etc. as well. (Physics might be a bad example considering the rather high percentage of physics geniuses that are pretty far into the “nerd” syndrome).

From the point of view of a society, such as America, a educated populace is the country’s most valuable asset. Almost all aspects of the world have become so complicated, complex and technical that they cannot be managed without a broad and deep understanding of many topics. I was almost going to say that a college education makes it easier, and more likely, to separate truth from fiction – but the last decade of two in America seems to disprove that contention. The willingness to accept and spread “fake news” (false information) seems to be based upon something other than “school learning.” I know several PhD’s and MD’s that seem to have trouble sorting fact from fiction. Maybe a good education doesn’t help with that, but it certainly helps do many technical, and not so technical, jobs.

The bottom line is that while a college degree is necessary for many jobs, it is not sufficient. In addition, while many jobs requiring a college degree don’t actually depend upon that knowledge, it sure makes the world a more interesting place. Obviously there are no jobs that depend upon a college background, self-learners have always been able to learn what is needed on their own. It is harder that way, but possible for those that are bright and dedicated enough to do it.

I do have a concern about the cost of a college education these days. Is it really worth it? If the reason for college from the government’s point of view is to have an educated population in order to function and be competitive, then the government should pick up much (or most) of the tab. If the purpose for a college education is to provide an educated workforce for industry, then industry should pick up the tab. If the purpose of a college education is personal interest, then perhaps the students should pick up the tab and the number of students reduced by a factor of 10,000 or so. As it is, students do all of the work, students pay all of the expenses, and the government/industry complex reaps the benefits. I think students should get paid for their efforts (“work”) in gaining an education. After-all, the main point is to enhance society – not enhance job skills for individuals.

What happens to political action money?

We have recently discovered that since the last election Trump has accepted over $250,000,000 in small donations to fund his false claims of election fraud. He accepted the funds under the name of a non-existent organization, so it basically seems to have gone to him personally. Since there is no organization to accept the funds, he generously accepted the money as tax free gifts to himself. However, since I have no facts on the subject, perhaps that money went to his re-election campaign funds. In any case, what happens to the money?

If he accepted the money as a tax free political contribution, he has a wide range of options to use donated money (except for his “personal” use such as household items, rent of personal homes … things like that). Anything else is fair game. He can donate it to charitable organizations, keep it for possible future political activities, donate it to other politicians – basically use it for anything that is vaguely “political” in nature – including just keeping it. He can donate unlimited funds to other politicians for their almost unlimited use for their “political” needs. In effect, it is money that can be used for leveraging his political goals as well as paying for the services of others, including lawyers fees for any future legal actions against him (civil or criminal).

We are also told that he spent some of the money for highly questionable gifts to others of around $10 million, as if that is very important when compared with the $250 million that he received. What about the other $240+ millions?

I find this to be pretty interesting because it seems to clarify the apparent “insanity” of Trumps actions. They aren’t insane, they are very effective ways to bilk millions of Americans who believe his “big lie” into giving him vast amounts of money that he can use for whatever he wants. It seems clear that he isn’t claiming election fraud because there was any election fraud, he is making that claim because he knows that it will cause millions of people to send him hundreds of millions of dollars. It is pretty simple logic. His thinking appears to be along the lines of; “I can make completely fabricated lies and people will send me truck loads of money.” The more outrageous the lies, the more money he will get. He has created a fantasy story telling business, one that seems to have almost unlimited “value.” Sure he is causing chaos and massive destruction worldwide by his story telling, but it sure is effective in bringing in the bucks.

I am envious. I tell my stories and all I get is a small bill to pay for the web service to host my blogs (true stories by the way). It would be more fun a few hundred million folks would send me a few dollars each just in case I found something interesting to do with it. I promise to not buy my cloths with it. Perhaps my problem is that my stories are attempts at telling the truth.

Is there actually a solution?

This week has left me with a kind of deep exhaustion concerning the state of humanity. It appears that no matter which way I look, or what “rock” I look under, I find decisions driven primary upon emotion and personal greed (I was going to say “stupidity” but perhaps that is unjust). A few of the things that we in the news lately include:

(ITEM) Off shore wind turbine developers claim that they have no environmental impact because there are no birds flying over the off-shore locations – thus this form of impact won’t happen, and therefore neither will any of the others. I think the reason that they don’t find much evidence of bird kills caused off-shore turbines is that the birds fall into the ocean and usually aren’t found – it almost certainly isn’t because of a lack of birds. In addition to the issue of bird kills, there are many other problems with wind turbines, not the least of which is that they provide little (or no) additional power to the overall grid. They do create power at the point of connection to the grid, but when viewed from point of view of overall cumulative production they do nothing. There are solutions to this problem, but so far those solutions have not been forthcoming. There is almost nothing good to be said about the turbines except that they are an exceptionally fine means of funneling trillions of tax dollars into the pockets of a few developers.

(ITEM) The global telecommunications industry is in the process of launching 150,000 new communication satellites into low earth orbit. There are currently no regulations or restrictions on these satellites so it has become a gold-rush by three companies to take control of global communications before regulations or laws put restrictions upon their rush for riches. What could possibly go wrong with Elon Musk having total control over global communications? What could be wrong with Musk (and a few others) inserting so many satellites into orbit to effectively force out other satellites, such as weather satellites and others? What would be the problem with these guys effectively blinding the world’s large astronomical telescopes, totally hundreds of billions of dollars in science investments? People have a very long history of what happens when a few highly motivated, clever, greedy individuals gain control of the commons (those resources that are shared by all). The results are never pretty.

(ITEM) The rate, and overall numbers of mass shootings in the USA is rapidly escalating. It has become very clear that it is no longer a problem with a few crazy people getting access to high powered, rapid fire weapons. These events have clearly become a terrorist activity energized, motivated and supplied by a large group of extremists intent on creating total havoc leading to the collapse of Society for the benefit of nobody. The Republican leaders continue to promote the solution of hardening the targets rather than control those intent on fostering and implementing these terrorist actions. The Buddhists talk about covering the entire world with shoe leather to protect people’s feet, versus covering the soles of their shoes. Hardening all schools, churches, shopping centers, public buildings, private buildings and shared open spaces is hardly a feasible approach – but it is the one that is favored by at least half of those in power in this country. The idea of preventing the hazard seems to be impossible to even contemplate or discuss.

(ITEM) Hundreds of trillions of dollars are used to subsidize new energy sources, but almost none is spent to reduce the amount of power required to meet our needs/desires. There are enough almost free approaches that could immediately cut the use of energy to less than 1/4 of our current use – and achieve better, more comfortable, more effective solutions to what we currently do. It is pretty clear that an additional 50% reduction is well withing reach if funding becomes available for research and development. The overall impact could easily be a 10 fold reduction in the need for energy, which then can be supplied by local renewable sources (including “roof top” solar and others). The only reason we use as much energy as we do is because it is extremely profitable for the suppliers to do so. There is no big profits if they don’t sell lots of power – therefore we stay stuck in a world of increasing energy use and increasing horrible results from that energy use.

(ITEM) I keep hearing people complaining that the government is causing the steep increase in the price of gasoline and they are therefore failing to do their job. How in the heck is the government pushing up the price of gasoline? This is happening because of the decision to NOT control the prices of commodities such as gasoline, it is the effect of an unregulated (or at least under-regulated) critical commodity. The same people that complain that the government is not controlling the price of gasoline are the same exact people that demand that the government stay out of private industry’s business. In addition, these same people are screaming that gas taxes need to be eliminated to lower the price of gas at the pumps. How in the world do they expect the transportation infrastructure to be maintained without charging for it? If not gas taxes, then what kind of taxes would be better? Taxes are going to have to pay for it, unless the roads are all given to private enterprise, in which case the roads will be paid for through tolls.

I could go on for many pages with all of the crazy ideas that are being implemented without any consideration for consequences, costs, benefits or truth. Rather than worrying about how best to help each other and work together we are rapidly becoming a global society, perhaps most evident in the USA, that is focused upon creating strife, chaos, destruction, and the collapse of civil government. These folks promoting this chaos apparently aren’t interested in truth, fairness, what works, value, the future, the future of their children or anything else – they just want to destroy.

This is becoming very disheartening. For a time I thought the problem was a fringe group bent on causing the destruction of the world. However, as I look at the numbers I realize those that are trying to avoid chaos and destruction are in the minority, they are the “fringe” group. It sometimes feels like a very big, very destructive tsunami has been detected and is heading our way, arriving before the likely end of my life (and I am 75 years old). People look out over the ocean looking for signs of the tsunami and seeing nothing. They shrug their shoulders and go about their normal lives as if nothing is out there. However, tsunami’s are hard to detect in the open ocean – they are deep waves often reaching to the ocean floor, rather than tall waves reaching toward the sky. There destructive power only becomes evident when it reaches the shore. For decades dedicated scientists have been telling us that the environmental tsunami that is rushing toward us is will hit land fall very soon, perhaps it has already come so far ashore that we can no longer run fast enough to outpace it. We all know it is there and bearing down upon us, we all have a pretty good idea of what will happen when it gets here, but we seem to be whistling in the graveyard – assuming that all the bad things will go away if we deny knowing about them. We have had notification of this destructive future for many years, in enough time to take effective actions to forestall or prevent the bulk of the outcomes, but we just keep whistling in the dark.

The Code Breaker

A couple of weeks ago my daughter gave me a copy of “The Code Breaker – Jennifer Doudna, Gene Editing and the Future of the Human Race” by Walter Isaacson for my birthday. Perhaps it was a nice gift – but it certainly didn’t leave me feeling full of confidence about the future of the human race!

According to this book, Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna was instrumental in the development of the gene editing “tool” known as CRISPR. Doudna’s work resulted in the development of many marvelous things, including COVID-19 testing tools and vaccinations. The book is a step-by-step history of the science of genetics starting with Watson and Crick’s determination that DNA is made up of two sugar-phosphate strands that spiral to form a double-stranded helix joined by pairs of chemicals called adenine, thymine, guanine, and crtosine (commonly known as A, T, G and C). This massive chemical structure creates our genes and therefore determines how we are built (and function). The result is a mind-boggling complex result from such as “simple” structure. However, that seems reasonable in a way – it is a simple code that results in great complexity and flexibility in a way that is analogous to computer code being formed by strings of 1’s and 0’s.

The discovery that the “genes” (originally postulated by Gregor Mendel) consist of self-replicating groups of the four chemicals (A,T,G and C) was enlightening and interesting, but mostly an intellectual pursuit – until a few developments changed the likely future of mankind. One of the key developments was the ability to determine the sequence of these chemicals – identifying the “letters” and sequence of the code of life. The book made no mention of how this is accomplished other than to say it has been done. The next important step was to decipher the code into genes that eventually determine all of the inheritable attributes of every animal on earth. Scientists have begun the monumental task of determining the code sequences that result in “us” all. Again, the book had little to say about this process except to indicate that is can be done, and has been accomplished for a lot of attributes For example, they know the sequence and location of the code for eye color, knowing which sequence results in blue eyes and which one results in brown eyes.

Then Doudna and her crew made a monumental discovery. They (and others) determined that bacteria have a really sneaky way of gaining immunity from viruses. Bacteria have a sequence of DNA that can make copies of the DNA (actually RNA) of attacking viruses. The bacteria makes a copy of the virus’ code, and then inserts it into its own DNA (cutting and/or copying the code from the virus, and then inserting that material into the desired location in its own DNA. Whenever it (or its offspring) encounters that virus in the future it will recognize the virus as being “bad” and then chop it up into tiny pieces. The immunity created in this way becomes part of the “germline” (inheritable DNA) of the bacteria rather than merely immunity achieved by the individual organism. Bacteria has been battling viruses this way for hundreds of millions of years. The code sequences that allow bacteria to accomplish this feat are known as CRISPR.

Apparently it is pretty easy for scientists to identify a length of code as a gene and to figure out what attribute are controlled by that gene. It also appears to be pretty easy to modify the CRISPR feature of a bacteria to match that code string, and therefore create a nifty cutting/replicating/inserting tool (which is what is being referred to when we hear about CRISPR in the news). In the case of Covid-19, it took a small team less than a week to identify the genes responsible for the “spikes” on the virus and create a CRISPR tool to cut that gene sequence out and replicate it as a safe and effective vaccination. They could do it so fast because they already and the tools, techniques and expertise to do that for just about any target that was of interest. In their case, they created a “look alike” virus that couldn’t cause harm but was similar enough for the human cells to create antibodies giving immunity to that virus.

They used variations of this approach to develop testing tools, vaccinations as well as “cures”. It is pretty amazing stuff. However, they only did that for the cells of the body that are NOT part of the human germline (perhaps … I am skeptical). That is all well and good. However, the CRISPR and associated tools can do MUCH more than that – easily. Kits costing approximately $100 are available on-line that allow anyone to modify genes in this way in their garage. No expensive laboratory, million dollars space-age tools necessary. A few dollar’s worth of easily obtained reagents, some glass containers and you are in business. Not only are you in business creating gene variations within an individual, but add a couple thousand dollars for a microscope and equipment to operate on single cell “embryos” and you can change the future generations of mankind. You can change anything about people. Skin color, height, strength, sex, perhaps sexual orientation, proneness of many diseases, intelligence, characteristics of aging, perhaps the length of the “die at age”, etc, etc, etc. Not only can all of these things, and many more, be changed but it is quick, easy and cheap to do so. “Designer people” are a real possibility right now, and in fact that has already happened in China by a rogue scientist named He Jiankui (and perhaps elsewhere). The processes are so easy to accomplish that it will be impossible to effectively regulate what uses will be made of this technology.

So now the genie is out of the bottle. Now what? Obviously there is an opportunity to do immense good for humanity by eliminating many inheritable health problems. However, while the scientists appear to be pretty good at identifying what code sequence does a particular thing (such as regulate eye color), what they don’t know is what other things are also influenced by that code sequence. It is not nearly as simple as one-code one-result, there is a one-to-many relationship and we have no way to predicting the many side of the equation. Perhaps the code for eye color also influences something else, such as susceptibility to common pollutants or the shape of the liver. Who knows?? Nobody knows. And if that change was made to the germline, then all of the descendants share the unknown changes (which might not show up until something in the environment generations later). Not only that, but the gene editing isn’t perfect. It is not unusual for other sections of other genes to be unknowingly changed during the procedures. This already happened with the designer twins born in China. There is a huge opportunity for unintended consequences.

Scientists have an exceptional ability to believe that they know “everything” about what they know about. The book makes is pretty clear that those in the field of genetic modification and gene editing know all of the consequences from what they are doing. They act as if they not only can “play God” but that they have a God-like knowledge of the full range of impacts of their work. Obviously this is not the case. However, now that they created this opportunity – what is going to be the outcome? It makes me want to stick my head in the sand while keeping my fingers crossed hoping for the best. We live in amazing times – it feels like great advances and great risks are arising in every direction.

In the stream of trash

I find that I am beginning to dread my daily trips to the trash can. For decades I have just thrown things into the garbage can next to my desk, or under my kitchen sink, whenever I needed something. But now I find I have become plagued with guilt, or maybe just disgust. My life, like those of almost all “modern” lives depends upon using things that come from somewhere else, and made by someone (or something) else. While I have a very large back yard, almost nothing that I use or eat comes from here. It is all shipped to me, or I go get it from a store that collects a lot of stuff from all over the world for me to select and purchase.

The fact that not only am I no even in the slightest way “self-sufficient” but everything that comes my way uses fossil fuels to get here is pretty disturbing. However, not only does it come to me using highly damaging fossil fuel vehicles, but it comes in packages that I immediately throw in the garbage. Much of the things that come in the mail get tossed before they are even glanced at. Many, perhaps most, of the products that I get come in packaging that not only gets tossed as soon as I finish wresting the product out of its package, but that package immediately gets tossed. When I take the garbage out I notice that the “waste” from the actual things that I want is almost zero. All the food gets eaten, the batteries get recycled (I hope), the tools usually stick around for years, almost nothing actually gets thrown out – except for the mountains and mountains of useless packaging.

I have started to feel like a cog in the jaws of some giant machine whose only purpose is to take valuable, and inherently benign, raw materials and transform them into highly polluting and dangerous industrial level garbage. It is a steady flow of good stuff to bad stuff, with me as a part of the bucket brigade taking the junk and passing it along to the next step. Perhaps a tiny bit gets recycled a few times before it finally falls off the end of the chain as waste. The waste comes in many forms that we keep hearing about. The end of the cycle seems to be things like carbon dioxide, tiny particles of plastic filling every space in the water systems (oceans, lakes, rivers), mountains of stuff in landfills slowly (or not so slowly) oozing poisons into the ground and our water, mountains of stuff just sitting in the hopes that someday it will vanish (which is not the case during many lifetimes).

We all know, and lament, the story. We are destroying the world as we knew it 200 years ago (or in my case, seventy years ago). None of us are directly to blame, and none of us has much control over the process. However, lately I have become much more aware of my hands moving good stuff one step closer to useless stuff, bit-by-bit with almost no thought or action in the process. I open a package of batteries and immediately reach down to throw the waste into the trash. I buy a pound of beans at the store and immediately throw the flimsy little plastic bag I put it in while shopping into the garbage. I buy my new shirt, and immediately cut off and throw away tags, labels and packaging. I throw away more packaging from the sausages that I cook for dinner than the contents of the sausage.

Everything is sterile, clean, safe and packaged for easy shipping and display – and then discarded into the waiting mountain of trash. I have come to realize that unless, or until, this conveyor belt of good stuff to trash without a use in the middle comes to an end we are never going to find a solution. I don’t suppose that “the solution” is to stop that process – stopping it will occur because we found a better solution to the entire system of moving things from hither to yon. Perhaps it will entail smaller, closer sources of things so that we can get there under our own power (walking, roller skating, bicycling, etc) and can just bring home what we want, not all of the other stuff that comes with it. I don’t see a clear view of that future, but I can see a clear view of what happens if we don’t find solutions to the every growing stream of valuable resources being turned from good stuff to junk with no value or use along the way.

“Aloneness” is different than loneliness

This morning I found myself contemplating the difference between being lonely and being aware that I am alone. “Loneliness” has a yearning aspect to it. When I am lonely that usually means that I am by myself (either physically or emotionally), and don’t like that situation. I want to have someone in my life. This might be a person, a pet, or just a bunch of people as in a party. It “feels” bad, feels like something I would like to “fix”. Sometimes it is a desire to be distracted, sometimes it is a desire to be heard and perhaps understood. Sometimes it is just boredom, not really loneliness at all. In any case, it is usually has very negative experience because it has a large amount of wanting there to be another now. This desire can escalate until it takes on the experience of “panic” – or sometimes claustrophobia. Luckily for me, I am very rarely “lonely” regardless of how many people are around. It turns out that being lonely can happen just as easily, perhaps more easily, when there are people around but I am not “connecting” with them. It has nothing to do with “them” – it is all about me and how I experience the situation.

Being alone, however, can have a very different feel about it. As I have aged, I have come to more clearly understand that we are always alone. At the bottom of it all, we are alone with ourselves in this world. There might be other people (or animals), but they are always “over there” – they are always just fleeting images and experiences. For example, we might be totally engaged with a dear friend, or a lover, for a period of time – but then things change and that person is only a memory. Perhaps they die, perhaps you have a falling out, perhaps they just move away and we never seem to have time to re-connect. In any case, we are still there – as always, by ourselves.

If I am careful to avoid confusing “being alone” with “being lonely” – then I realize that it isn’t a bad thing, or a good thing, it is just life. I actually have no choice. I was born alone, will travel through my life alone, and will die alone. Sure, there will be helpers, lovers, enemies, friends, and others – but I am fundamentally alone all of the time. There is a kind of melancholy that comes with this realization.

I notice the melancholy particularly on those rare occasions when I meet someone that I “resonate” with. Sometimes I meet a person that just “clicks” with me. We like each other, can talk about any topic with glee, and just feels right. At those times I also notice a vague melancholy because I know that it isn’t going to last. There will be a time when that person, or that feeling of connection, will be gone. The moments that I am so thoroughly enjoying will be fleeting memories – that is just how it is.

I am finding that this understanding of being alone is just fine. It is not something to run away from (there is no escape even if I tried). The joyful, and “fun” part of this is the realization that I am in charge, I can chose. There is actually nobody else and I can chose to live however I want. Personally, I like to live in wonder and curiosity – while having fun most of the time. It is my choice – that is how I chose to do it. I want to be silly, but serious, unpredictable but dedicated, I like to work on things that I don’t think I can do – and often don’t ever accomplish. I like living with a lot of contradictions. I like to enjoy life. I see some people who seem to chose to live in misery, and I wonder why. Why would a person chose a path like that?