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Trump’s “Emergency” Press Conference

I have been out of connection with “the world” for the past week because I was attending an International System Safety Society Summit and Training meeting (it used to be called a conference until political correctness raised its ugly head and we had to name is something less controversial – but also less clear). Upon getting back to the news I find that Trump held an “emergency” press conference on August 8th. I guess I was a bit behind since it happened before my trip to the Summit but I didn’t hear about it until now.

I’m not sure of the nature of the emergency, perhaps he was lonely and just needed to have someone to talk to – or perhaps he realized that this election thing might not be as easy as he thought. In any case, the week following that press conference the more thoughtful news sources started talking about it. For example, NPR presented the results of a fact checking exercise they did on the material. They found that he lied 162 times in the 64 minute talk (on the average of one lie per 23 seconds). That means that on average the speech had many more lies than truthful statements. It wasn’t a lie now and then, it was an fact accidentally being included now and then. I watched a little bit of it until my patience ran out – I couldn’t stand listening to his lies. However, I was fairly impressed with his ability to create a running non-stop flow of complete vitriol, hate speech and lies. It was an impressive feat of running off at the mouth while saying nothing at all.

I wonder how many people saw the event. It was a press event therefore I assume it was just a few dozen at the most. Perhaps it was televised live, but if so I missed it. Rather than being a rally of some sort, it was clearly intended to get media coverage. It was not meant to be “seen” but rather it provided talking segments to be reused. Since it was promoted as a Q&A back and forth session, there should have been an opportunity for the press to push him on a few of his lies – they didn’t do that. I don’t know if it was possible, but it seems that there could have been a split screen showing him speaking versus a “real time” fact checking. A short delay would have made this possible. His lies were so glaringly obvious, and trivial, that an immediate feedback should have been possible.

As it was, all of his statements went unchallenged, even though all of the big broadcast companies were present. The challenges didn’t come for almost a week, and then they did so on news channels that are probably seldom viewed by his “base.” Those of his base that watched the performance undoubted sucked it up whole cloth believing ever word. The real information wasn’t presented until days afterward and on channels that only speak to those that already are convinced that Trump is mostly a vindictive, habitual liar. He doesn’t say ANYTHING with forethought, knowledge or wisdom – it is just a stream of consciousness that is intended to sway his base.

We all know all of this, even his base knows all about it. What’s missing? I wonder if whats missing is a press that has the guts to tell the truth in a timely and clear manner. It is the press’s fault that his based didn’t get the lies pointed out to them, it is the press’s fault that he is allowed to make wildly false and insulting claims UN-challenged, it is the press’s fault that he has any sort of appearance of sanity, compassion or anything else required to run our country. They treat him as a wonderful gift of constant “news” – he is a blessing to them because there is always something sort of new to say, always video feed to show and always controversy to cover. If they were doing anything close to their “charter” with the American People, they would all being discussing his lies, discussing not only what he said that was wrong but clarifying with what is the real situation. The lies are so great and obvious that they are just plain false facts, regardless of the many more incorrect opinions. Truth is truth, it is not subject to opinion.

We are seeing controversial and contentious politics being maintained by the press because it is controversial, eye catching, and emotionally challenging – and hence “newsworthy.” In short, we are being played the fools. Both sides of the public are being played the fools supporting a failed press system. Once Rupert Murdock and his ilk took reigns of the media, the meaning of “news” became ratings to rake in advertisement dollars rather than the sacred duty to provide the information and understanding that is critical to the success of this experiment that we call democracy.

Great education and an engaged, moral, ethical press are the keys to our success – democracy cannot survive without these two pillars of society, which are shabby at best and getting worse as they interact with each other. A strong and well funded free press is critical to our success, as is the presence of an educated public. Even when we have mediocre (that is a complement) news coverage, it has gotten to be only about 1/3 of the viewing time – the other 2/3 is made up with terrible (super low quality, boring) advertising. I believe that advertising should be banned during “the news.” It has gotten to the point where I find it almost impossible to “watch the news” because there is so little of it, there is so little of importance shown, and it takes so long to wait for the mountains of ads between brief, non-informative bits of “news.”

While I am totally disgusted with Trump and his followers, in many ways I give them a “pass” – his followers are doing the best that they can given the information they have. Generally, I find his followers to be interested, compassionate and interested in the things that I am interested in. However, their “knowledge” comes from a failed news system augmented with a corrupt “social media” echo chamber – and it is getting worse.

Presidential Race

I trust that you watched at least a little bit of the DNC this week.  What did you think?  I thought they knocked it out of the park! 

As the week went along I began to wonder if they weren’t overdoing the “inclusion” part to the point that I am now somehow “excluded,” but when all was said and done I thought the constant reminder that everyone is included was fine with me.  It seemed that most of the presentations were by “blacks” (or however they should be called), minorities, women and LGBTQ people – with a smattering of regular white guys thrown in when time allowed.  I started to worry for a bit, but finally relaxed with it and got to the point of saying to myself, “of course they are wanting to flood the time with their story – this may be their opportunity to shine.”  Good for them, all of them – it doesn’t diminish me in the least.  So I just listened to what they all had to say and was pleased with the message.

I found that I got up this morning feeling excited and optimistic – and somehow refreshed about the political future (of the world) for the first time in years. It feels like perhaps there is a sliver of a chance that some of my big concerns might actually get addressed. (A few of my big concerns are related to education, balancing the economy, protecting the environment, becoming energy sustaining, etc. I guess they are all related to my belief in my profession of System Safety – find the problems and solve them.)

Kamala’s policy statements were of necessity brief and quite general in nature, but not so general as to lack substance.  I think my favorite agenda items fit nicely into what they talked about all week, and that she outlined during her rather amazing speech.

I was pleased that they talked about many of my “favorite” topics such as improving schools, creating opportunities for those on the bottom, reigning in the acceleration of the transfer of wealth to the very rich, fixing the border/immigration problems, actually making inroads on the climate and environmental problems, solving the woman reproductive rights debacle, international affairs – and on and on and on. They talked about it all, and did so in ways that made my head nod in agreement. The week was filled with policy positions, goals, and philosophical positions that I believe can actually work. It was mostly just “common sense” actions to achieve the goals that 99% of American’s want (and need). We don’t disagree with each other, we just think we do.

I would have liked to hear more specific details about how to accomplish, and afford, all of the things they were proposing. However, there is time enough for that – and it feels like there is room in all of that for MY ideas about how to move forward. Not that anyone is ever going to hear my ideas, or act upon any of them, but I feel that if I were to be heard my thoughts would be accepted as valid and important. Hopefully everyone will end up feeling that way – that is how important dialogues come about, everyone’s ideas are important and a part of the discussion. I felt that my ideas would be listened to, as well as the ideas from my conservative rural friends. I think Kamala laid out an invitation to us all to get together with “the other side” (from all sides) and talk to find out what we agree upon and how to get those things done. Let’s take her up on the challenge and find the agreements – I am pretty sure we actually have almost universal agreement on all of the important goals and desires, we just don’t have agreement on how to get to them. If we talk we just might find that the combination of our views actually contains the seeds of the solutions that we seek.


Here’s hoping for a better future.

Convince Me to Not Support Trump

A couple of weeks ago I stopped in to a local bar to chat with some of my “blue collar” friends. I enjoy the atmosphere and discussions concerning with these friends concerning more “down to earth” topics of life’s problems. This time my small group of friends were all wearing brand new MAGA hats! I already knew that they are pretty “conservative” folks, but was a bit surprised by a couple of them that were so proudly wearing these hats. They all know me well enough to expect some push-back from my rather liberal point of view. However, I was so surprised about this turn of events that I was speechless (an unusual condition) and just listened.

Things quickly settled down when they realized they were not going to get much of a response from me. The friend sitting closest to me said he had decided to vote for Trump. I just shock my head in disbelief, and mumbled something about being disappointed in his decision. He then surprised me by asking me to please convince him why that is a bad idea. Hum?? I was rather startled by this request – I think he was seriously asking me to help him form a position for not voting for Trump that makes sense to him, and perhaps one he can discuss with his friends when I am not there. It was an invitation. However, I was so taken by surprise by the request that I just said the reasons included just about everything Trump says and does, then I ordered another beer for the two of us and changed the subject.

Two weeks later I continue to ponder the invitation. I realize he wasn’t asking a high level big question, he was asking for detailed specific instances that he can understand. It wasn’t enough for me to point to Trump’s overall behavior, his habit of lying, his insulting and degrading comments, or the insanity of many of his proposals. My friend was asking for something much more nuanced and specific.

As I ponder his request I keep wondering what he thinks will get better with Trump in office. What might be my friend’s specific problems, issues, concerns that are so important that he is willing to overlook Trump’s rather obvious problems? I haven’t had a chance to go back to ask about this – I hope to in a few days. I think my best approach to responding might be to take a small number of examples of problems and compare likely outcomes and solutions offered by Trump’s Republican followers versus the Democrat’s approaches.

Perhaps I have an example that might help clarify the differences.

A few weeks ago I was notified by my insurance agent that the homeowner’s insurance for my “cabin” (actually just a house) in Northern California will be canceled in September because of the high risk of wildfires in that area. I have been searching for an insurance company that will sell me coverage – so far I have had no luck. It appears that I may end up with an uninsured summer house located on a large recreational lake. There are several thousand homeowners in a similar position around this lake, and millions more throughout California.

Losing fire insurance has severe economic impacts of these homeowners. Most homeowners in California have mortgages with banks, they don’t own their homes outright. The loans from banks require that insurance coverage be maintained to protect their assets. If insurance coverage lapses, then the banks want to be paid off, or they will foreclose on the property. That means that because insurance companies are refusing to write fire insurance millions of homeowners are at risk of losing their homes and the value represented by these homes. Even if a person owns their home outright, the sale value plummets without the ability to obtain a bank loan. That is a disaster for the individuals, and the economy of the State.

There is a new fire insurance plan in California that is available for a few of these homeowners for a mere 300% – to 400% increase in rates for vastly reduced coverage. It is called the California Fair Plan, but is nt a “State government” plan, it is a commercial plan available in the state. So far there are about 350,000 of these policies sold but the restrictions for obtaining coverage for things such as hours of occupancy per year that about a million homes are still uninsured. The demand for these high prices plans has overwhelmed the insurance company, resulting in limited availability to those who need to take this “last resort” approach to saving their home.

Where did this problem come from??? It started about 120 years ago when large timber companies began managing the forests for maximum profit. These companies cut the old growth forests, planted new monoculture forests of identical trees (Monoculture is the cultivation or growth of a single crop or organism, or a culture dominated by a single element.) spaced too close together to enhance the yield while decreasing the harvesting costs. At the same time, the timber companies demanded fire protection from the government to protect their investment. The fire protection was provided as requested, was successful – and resulted in the creation of highly flammable, unmanageable forests.

At the same time that the forests were being transformed into plantations, homeowners were being enticed into building new homes in the beautiful, but highly fire prone, forests. These homeowners depended upon bank loans, which depended upon the availability of low cost fire insurance. If there had been no fire insurance, there would have been very little building in these fire prone areas. The creation of the current fire problems in California came about by a combination of inexpensive fire insurance, mismanaging forests to maximize logging profits, and the current high temperatures associated with global warming. However, the current problem is NOT the outcome of global warming, it is the outcome of too much profit taking from our natural resources.

Now that the risks created by these practices are being experienced as loses, those insurance companies that profited for many years are leaving the homeowners to pay the price. Millions of citizens were enticed into purchasing homes in hazardous areas based upon their belief that the fire services could protect their property, and that if they failed to do so, their savings were protected by the insurance that they have been buying for decades. Now insurance rates have risen by as much as ten times in the last two years, and fire insurance is often unavailable. These homeowners are now at risk of losing their homes along with their entire investment.

What does this have to do with Trump and his “conservative” followers? They are set upon eliminating regulations with the expectation that business will “do the right thing.” Businesses are not capable of protecting or enhancing the common good, they are only capable of reducing their business risks while maximizing profits. It takes government policies, regulations and agencies to protect the common good, and it takes regulations to ensure the protection of individuals from excesses of business. My expectation is that the conservative approach to the insurance emergency is to let the chips fall where they might. If homes are foreclosed and bought up by the banks and investors for pennies on the dollar, that is just the way that money flows. My expectation is also that the “liberal” side of politics will work to find ways to project homeowners, while minimizing future high fire risk situations. The liberals aren’t likely to succeed completely these two goals because of the conservatives blocking their actions – but they will work toward making it better for the common good rather than just better for the super rich.

There are millions of analogous situations where decisions need to be made in favor of the common good versus the good of large businesses. The opposing parties are very clear about these differences. Conservatives claim that businesses make the right decisions about things like the environment and social needs while liberals observe that they don’t often make such generous decisions. For some odd reason, many of the supporters for Trump’s proposals are the very people that will be hurt the worst by the current proposals such as are outlined in “Project 2025” and during Trump rallies. I think much of the emphasis on social issues (such as abortion rights, undocumented immigrants, etc.) are intended to distract many people from Trump’s real goals of concentrating power and wealth into the hands of a few.

Biden and Trump Debate

I can’t miss the opportunity to talk about last week’s Presidential debate. In preparation for writing this blog I decided to go back and re-watch the event. Biden started off in good shape – he was engaged, thoughtful, wide awake – and correct. However, after about two or three minutes something happened to him. He became pensive, he started looking down at his note pad rather than directly into the camera, and he seemed to be concentrating on how he might best respond to the insane lies flowing from Trump.

At first it looked to me that Biden was the poster boy for dementia. His slack face, open mouth, drooping eyes all reminded me of some of my loved ones as they sank into dementia and away from reality. However, when it was his turn to speak he looked bright and fully aware, supporting the important things he said. Other than difficulties with his speech resulting from a severe childhood speech impairment (stuttering) that he largely overcame during his adult life, he spoke well and thoughtfully. His demeanor was definitely subdued, especially in contrast with Trump’s bombastic outpouring of lies and insults. However, Biden was NOT having difficulty with thoughts, memory, or understanding. He was just taking his time and considering what he said before he said it (unlike Trump’s approach to speaking).

It would be quite helpful if Biden would release medical information concerning what happened to him. It clearly wasn’t a case of progressive dementia that slowly gets worse over time – it appeared to be caused by his trying to figure out how to effectively deal with Trumps aggressive use of made up information. There was not time in the format for him to identify or correct the torrent of mis-speak from Trump. It would have been interesting if there could have been a real time fact-check to flag Trump’s made up facts. It now easily be done after the fact so that we can more confidently identify the falsehoods from both sides at the point where they were made. However, this is all “water under the bridge” at this point, few would take the time to go back and watch it again looking for lies. I think it might be important for Biden to release information about his health and cognitive state to put the concern of his having dementia to bed. Those of us with aging parents recognize the signs of dementia, and this was not that. He is sharp, coherent and correct most of the time, but tends to think deeply before speaking – given the appearance of not “being with it,” when in fact he is deeply engaged with the issues at hand.

Now what do we do? What is the reasonable path forward? For one thing, the world’s medical experts need to evaluate President Biden to figure out what happened, and what the likely future situation might be. There are a number of doctors offering their opinions of his “condition” ranging from “not-dementia” to possible early Parkinson disease. So far I have seen no opinions that point to anything of immediate concern in the next few years. Perhaps there will be times where he can call “time out” for a while (we could all use a little of that). He has plenty of qualified aids, staff and advisors to support him, no President can do the job by themselves.

There are some real and extremely important differences between the two candidates once they get into office. These differences are not hypothetical, they are real – backed by real experience. Biden surrounds himself with the actual experts in the various fields that he has to deal with. He maintains access to the best, most up-to-date science, his political and social advisors are the most experienced and best in the world – and he pays attention to them. Trump, on the other hand, surrounds himself with people with essentially zero experience or understanding in their various areas of responsibility. They are “yes men” that agree with his every whim, and tell him what he has told them he wants to hear. When they have the audacity to disagree with him, he fires them.

On the other hand, Biden is truthful, honest, compassionate and smart. He knows and works well with leaders around the world, and within the halls of congress. Trump lies so often that it is apparent that he no longer recognizes it as a problem – his approach seems to be “why bother with learning the truth when all you have to do is make up the story that people want to hear?” He lies, insults, demeans, and attacks everyone that he sees might get in his way, and that appears to be just about everyone. There is no reason to know anything if you can change reality and the truth just by saying it is so. That might be almost acceptable if his goals were to support the Nation, Democracy and world peace. Instead, he has a very low intelligence, but thinks of himself as omniscient with the goal of making himself and his cronies wealthier and more powerful. He is a model for the story of “The Emperor has New Clothes.” We need the truth telling boy of the tale who points out the fallacy of the statements.

In the case of Biden, should he embark upon a dangerous and unwise path, his advisors have the credentials and authority to intervene. In the case of Trump no sure protections exist – he has made sure that there are no pockets of power that might inhibit his decisions and quest for power and money. Biden believes he is working for America and democracy, Trump is working for himself and his powerful cronies. He wants to concentrate as much power and wealth as he can, into the hands of as few as he can. He wants to be the emperor of the world.

Assuming I am correct and Biden is healthy enough for the job but looks bad on some occasions (such as during last week’s debate), what should the path forward be? The problem is that millions of voters watched his performance and judged him to be too compromised for the job. My initial reaction was that something (such as a stroke) had happened to him that caused his poor performance. In fact, this blog originally started with the opinion that he degenerated so quickly during the debate that it appeared to be a medical emergency situation and the debate should have been stopped so he could get needed emergency medical attention. Upon re-watching the debate I changed my mind – it appears that he was low on energy (exhausted), but what he said was coherent, to the point, and correct. If you just read the transcripts without the visual cues he was just fine and did a good job with the debate. (That is what people report that only read translations to other languages.) However, most people won’t take the time to go back and re-watch the event, or read it instead of watching it – they will maintain their initial reaction that he is incapable of doing the job based upon his appearance during that debate.
Should the Democrats take the chance that he can improve performance enough in the future to wipe out those initial impressions? Personally, I doubt that he can. Those images are seared into people’s minds. Can they depend upon enough people voting against Trump even though they don’t like the choice offered? Maybe. There are a lot of people that don’t really care what happens as long as Trump doesn’t get re-elected (I fall into that category.) Or will this cause many people to not vote (which is an effective vote for Trump in this election)? That is very likely.

It looks like the best solution is to quickly find a replacement, or at least do an extremely good job at showing how it really doesn’t matter much if Biden degrades even more over the next four years, he has sufficient high quality support to “get the job done” even if he is personally compromised. I believe that is the case, his presence or absence isn’t all that important as long as his aids, staff and advisors continue to do a good job – the position of President is normally pretty much as a “figure head” so it isn’t all that important. (However, Trump demonstrated that it doesn’t have to be a figure head position, the President can load the advisors, courts and agencies in ways that give him incredible power. That doesn’t usual happen, but it does in his case.)

It will be interesting to see how the Democrats change their approach over the next few weeks.

Who has the football?

This morning I was telling my girlfriend about some of my experiences working as a system safety engineer on the Trident Missile System. After finishing my degree in engineering, I took a new job as a system safety engineer at Lockheed Missiles and Space company in the early 1980’s. Lockheed’s job offer was the first time I had ever heard of a system safety engineer, or a safety engineer of any kind for that matter. I found myself transitioning from a small time general contractor in coastal Northern California to suddenly being involved in a huge, high-tech project involving the worlds biggest and most deadly weapon system! I was thrown from the kumbaya laid back liberal living in the back waters of California to the center of a massive new weapon system capable of destroying civilization as we know it! My rationale that allowed me to make such a transition was (and still is) that these things are so damned dangerous we better make sure they don’t accidentally cause mischief – either in the sense of a nuclear bomb, or more simply as in the form of non-nuclear accidents involved with their storage, transportation, maintenance, inspection, etc.

The discussion with my girlfriend eventually progressed to a discussion of what a “ballistic” missile with on-board guidance capability is. The important aspect of this is that a ballistic missile is guided only when it’s first launched. After that its flight is subject to the law of gravity. The design of these systems result in them being uncontrolled from outside sources once launched. They can’t be aborted, turned back, or redirected – basically they are “point and shoot” devices (it is actually a lot more complicated than that, but the outcome is the same). The idea is that you wouldn’t want the enemy to be able to highjack the system and neutralize your missiles – therefore outside control is not an option. Once they are launched, they will do what they have been programmed to do.

It is difficult to conceive of the size of our nuclear arsenal. It is truly horrific just considering the capability of the D5 (Trident II) nuclear fleet consisting of 14 submarines carrying up to 24 missiles each (currently limited to 20 by treaty). Each missile can deliver around 8 warheads. At the present time, the missiles are armed with “low yield” war heads comparable to those used on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. However, those can be replace with warheads that are more than 30 times that powerful – each warhead.

That brings up the question of what prevents them from being launched at the wrong time? Not much. A single person (the President) has the authority to order a launch at any time. They can implement this command through a device that is humorously referred to as the “nuclear football.” The entire command and control system has been designed to allow an essentially unfettered access to this awesome power by the President. As far as I know, there are no official “checks and balances” to this authority. The reason for this is that the command must be implemented very quickly if it is to be carried out before the threat of incoming nuclear warheads from a hostile enemy destroy our ability to respond. Time is of the essence, and there is just barely enough time to set targets, arm, and launch our retaliatory missiles should we be attacked. This is the essence of our doctrine of “mutual assured destruction” (MAD).

Quoting from Wikipedia, “Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would result in the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender.” Since it is practically impossible to survive a massive first-strike, the strategy is to launch the “second-strike” before the first strike has occurred.

It turns out that it isn’t quite as hard-and-fast as that sounds. There has been at least one instance where a launch from Russia was detected by our early warning system. Doctrine indicated that our missiles were supposed to be launched within approximately five minutes from detection. No checks and balances were in place, and everyone in the chain of command was mandated to carry out a retaliatory launch. However, the command was not launched in violation of the “rules” – the President at the time decided to wait and see because there was no build-up to the immediate threat of an attack. As you know (because you are still alive) that “launch” was a false alarm, it was a glitch in the early warning system. We dodged a bullet because those in command were willing to violate their orders. Lucky us. There have been other “close calls,” but since they have not been published in the open press they remain shadowy “rumors.” The point is that our survival depended upon having quick thinking, dedicated, highly trained, stable individuals in place at that moment who were willing and capable of making the “right” decision.

That brings me to the consideration of our current Presidential election. Who will be in charge of the nuclear football when the election is over? The question goes far beyond the stability and knowledge of the President at the moment of decision, but more critically – who is in place to support a quick and rationale decision? Since there are no effective means for implementing organizational controls, regulations, overviews or “checks and balances” – those checks and balances will depend upon those who are personally surrounding the President at the moment of decision. That is why it is so important to make sure that all of the President’s assistants are qualified for their jobs. This means the cabinet members, and the heads of the various departments (such as the Department of Justice, the Department of Defense, etc). He needs the best and brightest at his side should such a decision need to be made again – or should the President decide to make such a decision on his own rather than in response to an active threat. The person in control of the Nuclear Football actually and truly has control of our nuclear weapon system – and the future of civilization. The President’s selection of close advisors can be expected to play a crucial part in assuring the stability, and safety, of our nuclear arsenal should the topic turn from “theoretical” to “real.”

Note: Just in case I might not have been clear, Trump represents the danger that I am talking about given his penchant for “shooting from the hip” without any apparent consideration of the consequences of his actions, his profound lack of understanding of much of anything, and his habit of surrounding himself with incompetent, inexperienced “yes men.” He intentionally isolates himself from those who might question or disagree with him – including his selections for the Supreme Court.

California Fire Insurance

The catastrophe of being unable to obtain fire insurance has finally landed on my doorstep. I avoided the problem for a couple of years, but last week got the dreaded notice from my insurance company that my home owner’s insurance on my vacation home in the Sierra Nevada Mountains is being canceled because my home is in a high fire danger area. This is a bit of a problem because it leaves me without any insurance, and it also means that I can no longer sell my house because banks will not give a mortgage without insurance. Perhaps the best solution for me is to knock down my house and sell the bare ground. If I can’t insure the house I need to knock it down because I can’t accept the risk of having an uninsured property, and it looks like I can’t sell it – so the value not only went to zero, but about $100,000 below zero to remove the risk. Opps – there goes another $500,000 of my “retirement” fund.

This house is a problem because it is located in a rural community in the Sierra Nevada Mountains – which just happens to be in a forested area just like all of the northern Sierras. I have trees on my property, my neighbors have trees on their property which makes it a fire prone area. There is a risk of a forest fire – hence no more insurance. The community has a very responsive and well staffed fire department, enforces strict “fire safe” property management requirements to keep the ground clear and tree limbs at least 20 feet from the ground. The fire department makes frequent inspections to ensure fire safety and a defensible zone around homes – vigorously enforcing their rules and regulations. This is a very different situation from the practices of communities that burned during forest fires during the past few years. Sure there is a risk of a fire loss, but that is the point of insurance – to “share” individual risks across a large group of people.

After the initial shock of being denied insurance died down I looked around for alternatives. I found a company from another state that is willing to sell me homeowners insurance, without forest fires being included. That is a bit of a relief, perhaps I don’t have to knock the house down – I just need to accept the risk of losing the house from a wild fire. That might be a workable solution for awhile since I own the house outright and don’t have a mortgage or a bank to deal with. However, it will likely mean that the house remains unsalable (or at least, much decreased in value) because it is unlikely for a future buyer to obtain a mortgage.

It turns out that a group of insurance companies created an alternative “last resort” avenue for getting fire insurance called “Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR)” plans. The intent was to create a market for those of us that have been pushed out the insurance market and therefore face losing the value of our homes. Unfortunately, one of the requirements for eligibility for the FAIR plan is more than 50% occupancy. Since this is a summer home that isn’t practical for me. I am not positive what 50% entails, but if it means 1/2 of 365 days a year that means I am not eligible.

This is a problem that has been a concerned for some time – I suppose I should have sold my place as soon as it became evident that insurance companies are attempting to back away from the risks. I sort of understand their position – they are in the business of changing as much as they can and paying out as little as they can. Wildfires clearly are a significant, growing, risk now that we are more deeply entering into a era of global warming. Hotter weather, longer summers, less rain all contribute to added risk. Add the impacts from the past 80 years of extremely poor forest management practices by lumber companies and the fire departments and you get an extremely dangerous situation. During that period of time the forests in California have been transformed into extremely dangerous fire risks because of the practice of putting out all fires as soon as possible, coupled with clear cutting vast swaths of forests that are then planted with too many trees crowded too close together so that there are few natural fire breaks and the extreme underbrush ignites fires high in the tree canopy allowing fires to race through hundreds of thousands of acres of forest. It is not like the old days where there was a mix of plant species, trees were naturally spaced much further apart and the natives actively managed the forests to minimize fire danger while maximizing the productivity of the ecosystem (not in terms of board feet of lumber, but instead in terms of a healthy and useful environment).

So we are now to the point where decades of poor forest management practices have increased fire risks to the point where it is impacted home owners such as myself. I suppose there is something to be said for the idea that I (and my neighbors) have structures in areas that shouldn’t be built upon – it should all be left “natural” and open land. I almost agree with that idea, but once we have been allowed (encouraged) to build in these areas it is a little late to change course.

I don’t know of a good solution to this problem – I just know that it is certainly an uncomfortable turn of events. I would rather not lose a significant part of my planning for my “old age” because of what appears to be an imaged level of extreme fire risk. Maybe it will just turn out that the only ones that can afford to enjoy vacation homes in the mountains are those that can pay cash and afford to lose it should a wild fire burn their home to the ground. Perhaps that is fair.

Where have all the people gone?

It appears that is has finally happened, there are no longer any people doing any work. Not quite that, but getting closer every day. It has finally gotten to the point where it is almost impossible to contact a person in an office, all you can do is surf through the computer automated menu systems in the hopes of stumbling upon whatever it is that you are attempting to do. For example, once upon a time it was possible to call the County building department to ask a question – no longer. Now it is all about menu upon menu upon menu, but no people involved. I just spent an hour attempting to find out how to talk to a person that could help me figure out what permits might be needed for some repairs that I want to make. All I really wanted to know at first is where I could do that – you know, simple things like the right department, right organization, and who knows – maybe an address out of the dozens of possibilities.

After almost an hour of searching through their long and extremely slow menus I found a place to contact a person – but of course there was no person there, only a voice message to leave my permit number and they will call back. Of course I have no permit number, that is what I want to get. I did stumble upon an on-line way to stand in line at the office to talk to a person. However, there is no indication of which office I could stand in line at, where that might be located, and if that office might be one where I could find information that I need.

This menu system is simple to navigate because it only has a few dozen paths to check out. What happens with the medical menu systems is truly awful because there are very few clues about which path to follow and it is exceedingly difficult to find even a place where they promise to call back (but usually don’t).

All of these menus have turned what is normally a 3 minute phone call into several hours at a time. If you need to do anything at all complex, it is easy to spend five to six hours a day listening to God-awful voice menu messages, almost all of which are not useful at all. Rather than being able to find about a specific service you have to wait through menus to get to menus to get to other menus – which often lead to nowhere. Is this the grand new future of AI? Is this where we get when the machines “assist” us instead of allowing people to help people?

Business and government are doing all that they can to get rid of as many “non-essential” services as possible. This means as many as can be eliminated by machines, moving the costs of using these cost savings to the customer/citizen. Instead of hiring people, they are making horrible automated systems whose main purpose is to shield people from being bothered by the people who use and pay for the services. And what happens to all of those “non-essential” people? They lose their jobs, their income and their security. They learn to live under bridges with their broken down shopping carts.

Why are we allowing this to happen? I understand the reason for businesses and governments to do this – they want to reduce costs and increase profits. That is simple. However, I doubt if it actually reduces any costs once you look at the entire system (homelessness, need for support from government agencies, lack of access to essential services such as health care, lack of feeling important, etc). The cost for putting people out of work has to land somewhere – usually with the individuals, their social network, and government.

It isn’t as if all of these people can just go to a different job – in most cases (or on the overall point of view) there are no “different” jobs. It seems to me that we need to be adding slots for people to provide important services as we rapidly automate our entire economic system, not just continue to put people out of work when a new machine or AI invention makes the person non-essential. We need to find important things for people to do regardless of whether a machine is less expensive or not. Do we really want to just have machines because they cost less? Don’t we know that it is more important to have a society that works together than to just make a lot of cheap things and cheap services that don’t actually work?

I am confused about where we are headed, and what is cause us to make the decisions that we make with regard to the relationship between people and machines. Machines (including computers) keep getting more cleaver about filling our (humanity’s) slots. Everywhere you look jobs and opportunities for people are being eliminated by machines, but no alternate opportunities are provided. The people are just discarded. We can discard machines, but what does it mean to discard people? How can this possibly be a good thing? What can, or should, we do about this? It isn’t like the substitution of machines for people reduce costs to the end user – those stay the same. However, they DO increase profits for corporations.

Achieving Consilience

I find it interesting to watch the progression of the development of my understanding and points of view. I seem to jump around in a lifetime of education, touching on a topic that makes very little sense, only to find it popping up in another totally unexpected context that brings me back to the start with a very different point of view and insight into the original topic. That just happened to me, once again.

My deepening understanding of the concept of “consilience” as suggested by Edward O. Wilson began with a chance encounter with an old guy in a funky little bar-and-grill in the town of Davis, California. I like this particular venue because it draws from an extremely diverse group of people. Being in a major university town, there are students of various flavors – from the arts to the sciences, from freshmen to post doctorate fellows – there are professors, politicians, and a range of “working class” folks including carpenters, electricians, plumbers, arborists, building contractors, ranches, farmers, etc. The conversations are varied and always interesting.

One day about five years ago I sat next to a guy named Dr. Gerald A Cory, Jr. Dr. Cory’s varied and interesting background of being an author, senior military intelligence officer, a high tech corporate CEO “Legend of Silicon Valley”, a Rock-and-Roll impresario, a university professor and president, and others really caught my attention. He is just the kind of guy I really enjoy talking to.

We started our conversation around the topic of economics – one that I am interested in, but one that I am best described as an interested amateur. Dr. Cory has written many books on the topic, priced far outside of my budget. Being interested in hearing more of what he has to say on the topic, I purchased one of his books out of curiosity, “Delusions of Economics and The Way Forward.” The discussion of economics theory quickly turned to a new topic for me that he called “consilience,” referencing Edward O. Wilson’s book “Consilience and the Unity of Knowledge.” The general idea is that decisions should be made that are in consilience (alignment) with the total environment that they are related to. For example, when considering the creation of new shopping center the design needs to align with the needs of not only the owners and investors – it needs to also in alignment with the needs of the customers, the local community, the environment, the global economic situation, safety, law enforcement, community planning, etc. This use of the term seems reasonable, and partially implemented. However, there are obviously situations where ALL interested parties are satisfied with the results. In the case of the shopping center, it seems that the decisions made based upon the desires of a few – ignoring the collateral damage to most in the name of “progress.” The small critters (frogs, bugs, insects, etc) and generally left out of the picture, as are the community members whose town will be transformed into something very different. I found it all an interesting idea, but one that seems pretty utopian and unworkable – so I set the idea aside to perhaps be revisited in the future.

A couple of weeks ago my local librarian handed me a book that she thought I might be interested in. The author described a biologist whose specialty was the study of ants, Edward O. Wilson! That caught my attention, what is the connection between ants and the economics with regard to consilience? So, I found myself re-reading Wilson’s book on consilience.

While the book is only a little over 300 pages long, it was a very slow read as I attempted to follow the author’s arguments. I probably missed most of the nuances, but found myself asking new questions that have been churning in the back of my mind, but never clearly articulated.

Part of Wilson’s argument hinges on the idea of evolution being a means for modifying organisms to fit within the environment that they find themselves (sometimes called survival of the fittest). The basic idea is that there are many environmental niches that have been filled by organisms evolving over millions of years. The niches range in scale from tiny spaces with unique characteristics, to communities, to large land masses, to the entire world. At any moment in time, all of the organisms have evolved to the point of being “fit” for their environment. I don’t wish to fill in all of the details of his arguments here because of a lack of time and space, so I am just making the statement that organisms have evolved to “fit” in their environment. Some of their behavioral adoptions can perhaps be termed “instincts.” They make decisions based upon instincts and built-in biological processes.

Depending upon instincts worked fine until along came man. Man is different because man thinks in an entirely different way than other organisms. Man has evolved a brain that sets him aside from other animals by being able to think, abstract, and plan. (There is some evidence that Man isn’t totally unique in the ability to “think,” plan, and execute based upon thinking – but the differences between humans and other creatures are overwhelming and striking.)

I wonder if this is the result of having a complex language. My thought is that when “human nature” included the overwhelming use of language to communicate the nature of man changed. I think the use of language to communicate to others and ourselves allows us to do the things that are so very different from every other species. It is like the Bible says, “in the beginning there was the word..” The beginning of humanity was when we learned to talk (to ourselves and others).

I think that Wilson’s overall thesis is that if we want to “get it right” with regard to how we treat the world we will have do so in ways that are “consilient” with human nature. He says (and I agree) that if we keep doing things the way we are we will destroy the very world environment that we have evolved to fit into. We got to be the way that we are because we evolved to be successful in the environment that was present at that time. It took hundreds of thousands (actually millions) of years for us to be who we are, as is the case for every other living organism on the earth. It takes a similar amount of time to change to be adapted to a new environment. We are changing the global environment so quickly that millions of organisms (perhaps including ourselves) can’t change fast enough to cope with the change. He says (and once again, I agree) that the only solution is to stop changing the environment in ways that are lethal and unsustainable. We need to settle down and align our ways with who we (and nature) really are.

That brings up the question of, “what is human nature?” How can we know when we are in consilience with our inherited nature, or when we are in violation of that nature. We are learning a lot of this through science. For example, it appears that it is “human nature” to crave sweet foods. However, what we do with our mind is create “super sweet” foods such as high fructose corn sugar that are incompatible with our biochemistry, but “hit” the sweet spot of our craving for a high energy food. Another example is our apparently craving to accumulate “things” as a hedge against the future. We store tools, food, money, and other things during good times so we can ride out the bad. That seems to be “human nature” similar to squirrels storing nuts for the future – however, it gets out of hand and become destructive when we do that too much. Accumulating billions of dollars clearly has no survival value for the individual, and it does great harm to society. The urge to accumulate has gotten out of hand by a few, or perhaps by most. The urge results We can go down the list of things that we associate with “greed” at the business or corporate level, these are many of the things that are destroying our planet. The point is that our most destructive tendencies seem to be involve with an out-of-control fulfilling desires based upon “human nature.”

This line of reasoning brings Wilson to the following position: “Where are our deepest roots? We are, it seems, Old World, catarrhine primates, brilliant emergent animals, defined genetically by our unique origins, blessed by our newfound biological genius, and secure in our homeland if we wish to make it so. What does it all mean? This is what it all means. To the extent that we depend on prosthetic devices to keep ourselves and the biosphere alive, we will render everything fragile. To the extent that we banish the rest of life, we will impoverish our own species for all time.” (Note: Examples of a “prosthetic device” are depending upon fertilizer made from ancient oil to “fix” our depleted agricultural soils or draining the ancient non-renewable aquifers. There are many, many instances were we are using short term un-sustainable solutions for long term problems.)

Other than once again scaring the daylights out of me, the idea of my achieving consilience with my “human nature” is an interesting topic. One example that I have been attempting to practice involves my eating habits. Many years ago I decided to “control” my weight by paying attention to my cravings, rather than following a “diet” plan. My goal is to become sensitive enough to my inner cravings to select the right things and quantities to eat, For example, I used to be in the “clean plate” club where I ate whatever was on my plate. This resulted in my consistently overeating, especially at restaurants. Instead, I now try eat a little slower so I have time to pay attention to my craving to continue eating, instead I just stop when I have had enough. I don’t know if it helps my weight, but I feel better after dinner with this approach and it has never felt like I was missing anything. That approach extends to selecting what “feels” right off of the menu instead of what “looks” good.

This idea of watching for when the cravings die away extends to many aspects of our lives. Instead of continually striving to store more money away, I try to watch what it “feels like” with my income/spending. When it felt that I had enough to be safe in the future, I stopped accumulating wealth. I could have continued to do so through continued contracts for my work, or through paying more attention to my investments – but that comes at the cost of not doing other things I want to do (fulfilling different cravings). So I just stopped making money. If I want to work on a project to help someone I elect to do it for free. That is more fun, doesn’t feel so desperate, and doesn’t feel like I am trapped. In a previous blog I mentioned the importance of performing something like a potlatch. A potlatch involves giving away or destroying wealth or valuable items in order to reaffirm family, clan, and international connections, and the human connection with the supernatural world. As a child, I did a small scale potlatch when I emptied my bag of marbles onto the playground once I had accumulated too many. That action returned the marbles to others so that we could continue to play the game. I had no need for a bag full of marbles if there was nobody to play the game with.

I wonder what aspects of “human nature” (evolution created “drives” or “urges”) influence our behaviors, and what could be done to honor them without destroying ourselves or our biosphere. Can we envision a world where those basic cravings are met, but not over achieved. Is there a way that we can relax into being happy and comfortable with “enough” instead of becoming fixated on getting more of it, whatever “it” might be? Is there a way to understand that being “rich” means having enough? It seems that the “primitive” human knows when more is needed and when there is “enough” – but the “modern” human (the one with a language) always wants more. Can we find a solution that satisfies both? That would be the consilient solution, otherwise we seem to be marching toward a very bad future – is the present situation worth the cost of the inevitable future if we don’t change our ways?

Book: The Blue Machine – How the Ocean Works

A few days ago my local librarian handed me an interesting book called “The Blue Machine – How the Ocean Works” by Helen Czerski. (My librarian knows I am interested in many of those “other” books that often sit for years unread.) Czerski wrote an amazing book, full of interesting and critically important information about the oceans of the world – and did it in a way that is easily accessible and fun to read. At over 400 pages it isn’t a “short” book, and being a serious book about science isn’t necessarily simple to read and comprehend, but the author is nice enough to throw in fascinating, and often humorous, bits of detail that goes a long way toward avoiding the “snooze factor.”

The book is organized to bring the necessary information to the reader as it is needed to build up the entire story promised by the title. The book is broken into three major parts, “What is the Blue Machine?”, “Traveling the Blue Machine,” and “The Blue Machine and Us”. She presents a detailed description of an amazing “machine” – the oceans of the world. After a fascinating discussion of these important aspcects of the ocean, she finally brings the whole back around to the question of what does that all mean to us, and what might the future be like should we continue treating it as we have in the past (and present), or hopefully when we wake up and take actions to protect OUR future. The book has a very definite “environmental” agenda aimed at “saving the oceans” – but not in a demanding or angry way, Czerski merely describes what is there, how it is changing, and what is likely to happen should we continue treating it as a dumping ground for our wastes and an infinite resource for what we would like to take from it. Great book!

For me, there were some really eye opening discussions about things that should be obvious, but that I had not paid attention to. I found one paragraph particularly enlightening, and rather sobering at the same time. I normally don’t add long quotes to my blogs, but in this case I think the message is important enough to make an exception. This comes from a section discussing how “global warming” is impacting the oceans, and therefore the Earth.

“Tracking the total amount of heat in the ocean is one way to create a planetary thermometer, and it’s showing a steady rise.

But this extra heat isn’t just sitting in storage, parked on a shelf in the back of the ocean equivalent of a cupboard. The extra energy enters the ocean at the top as heat, so the surface waters – the warm mixed layer – are heating up faster than the layers further down. We have seen that a critical feature of the ocean is the set of systems that bring nutrients up from the cold depths towards the sunlight, so that phytoplankton can turn them into the materials of life. But a warmer surface layer makes it much harder for deep nutrients held in cold water to be mixed upwards into the sunlight, because the layering is stronger and harder to overcome. This reduces the raw material for life up in the sunlight, so the whole ecosystem is put under stress. Stronger stratification means that there’s less exchange within the ocean engine for everything: heat, gases, nutrients and more, starving the ocean’s internal interactions for material. The addition of extra heat at the surface is reinforcing the layered structure and therefore acting as a brake on the vertical turning over of the blue machine. A warmer ocean can also feed more energy into the atmosphere, changing weather patterns and making storms more intense. The impact can be particularly sever in the tropic, whee hurricanes and typhoons often hit poor communities that lack resilient infrastructure.”

This is yet one more description of why the problems with global warming aren’t just things getting hotter, it is that the mechanisms keeping the earth’s balances stable are getting undermined. It appears that many parts of “the system” are balanced a bit like a pencil standing on its point, rather than a pendulum hanging from a string. The pendulum is in dynamic equilibrium, push it to one side and it automatically returns to the center. A pencil standing on it point is a very different situation. Push it to one side and it falls. It seems like there might be some really important aspects of the ecosystem that behave more like the pencil and less like a pendulum. We should be VERY careful with how we change things.

California Solar Rates

Last year the California Public Utilities Commission (CAPUC) ruled that the current rate structure for residential solar is “unfair” for those that don’t have solar. Apparently, those who are too “poor” to afford solar have been subsidizing the cost of electricity for those who are “rich” enough to install solar. Their argument didn’t include things like the ongoing California subsidy program that provides lower income folks with free solar installations, or consider the fact that the “poor” folks are exactly those that could have benefited the most from lower utility bills associated with installing solar. Lower income homeowners can get solar for free. Perhaps the concern is that renters can’t easily reap the economic benefits of solar because landlords aren’t likely to invest in solar and pass the savings along to them. Actually, I don’t think there is actually a concern about “fairness for the poor” – rather it is about increased profits for the utilities. Solar installations are finally becoming numerous enough that it is impacting the economic model for the utilities, it is no longer just a nuisance, it is changing their business model. Luckily for them, the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) is packed with commissioners coming directly from the utilities who agree that big utility businesses really should get a larger share of the reduced costs for solar power.

The new rate structure reduces the value of “extra” power produced by residential solar installations during periods of excess production – a reduction of approximately 75% from previous rate schedules. An important feature of the old (NEM 2.0) rate schedule was that extra power was delivered to the utility by running the meter backward. Thus a kilowatt delivered to the utility in the middle of the day could be “used” to offset a kilowatt of power used at night (or at a different time of the year). The idea was to “loan” the utility some power until you needed it later. This is known as “net metering.” This approach caused all sorts of complications because of the different rate schedules between day and night use, the utilities “bought” high valued day time power and sold it as low valued night time power, giving them a substantial (letting them make about 24% on the cost of the “loan”) profit from the transaction but apparently this was not sufficient. [For example. A common Time of Use rate is $0.63/kWhr during the day when extra solar is produced and $0.51/kWhr off peak during the night, giving them a 124% markup on power provided by residential customer owned systems.]

The new rate structure reduces the financial advantage of solar power, extending the “pay back” period for solar installations, therefore resulted in a huge reduction in the number of new solar installations. What was a “good deal” for the utilities and the homeowners has now become a great deal for the utilities and not such a good investment for homeowners. Too many people were enjoying the benefits of locally produced solar electricity. The impact can be seen in the graph showing residential solar applications over time (the new law come into effect in April 2023). The reduction from an average of about 20,000 installations per month to perhaps 1,000 per month represents a major loss of jobs for installers, a huge loss of sales for equipment providers, and a potential loss in renewable energy (supposedly an important goal for California).

Source: https://www.californiadgstats.ca.gov/downloads

The “problem” that they were trying to “fix” is that since the cost of the utility infrastructure (the cost for things related to transmitting the power) is embedded in the cost of purchasing a kW of power, those that don’t use kWs because they zero out their annual usage through solar net metering don’t pay for the cost of the infrastructure. This is a real consideration that demands a solution as the percentage of renewable solar increases. I don’t deny the problem, but I disagree with their solution. The cost of maintaining the electrical grid infrastructure needs to be paid for.

The cost of a kW of electricity includes much more than just the cost of power, there are other costs such as the cost of transmission, distribution, cost of public purposes (free energy conservation classes for example), nuclear decommissioning, and others. In California it is illegal for utilities to markup the cost of power, the utilities purchase power on the wholesale market, selling it for the wholesale price plus the additional costs of transmission, distribution, maintenance and others (plus a profit on these additional items) in order to determine the retail value. I consider some of the extra costs to be highly questionable. One example of this is the bill to pay for the future decommissioning of defunct nuclear power plants. It seems to me those costs should have be included in the cost of power from them. Removing the cost of decommissioning those plants from the “cost” of operations biases the determination of whether or not nuclear power plants are economically viable. The cost for “power” is a small percentage of the overall cost of power to the customer.

So yes, there is an inequality embedded in their rate structure because net metering customers might not directly pay for the services that they enjoy.  Perhaps the price differential between peak power rates and off-peak power rates isn’t sufficient to pay for all of the services. That would be an interesting thing to find out, but as far as I have been able to ascertain the CaPUC made no attempt to determine if there is an actual inequality or not because they didn’t investigate the impact of the differential between electricity’s value when produced at peak periods but used at off-peak periods.

It seems to me that a better solution than embedding the costs of delivery into the cost of a kW of power is to bill for the cost of the infrastructure separately from the cost of kW.  For example, the infrastructure to support a 100 amp service costs x amount per month, while the infrastructure to support a 200 amp service costs 2x.  The bill should reflect the actual cost of power plus the actual cost of providing the necessary infrastructure to deliver that power. However, determining how to partition the infrastructure costs isn’t obvious. Transmission, distribution and maintenance costs seem to be fairly fixed across the entire utility grid. Poles, wires and crews cost about the same regardless of how much an individual house uses. Maybe the solution would be a load based fee for everyone that hooks up. If a large industrial user requires special upgraded service, then they should pay for that as an “extra” cost. It seems fair for every customer pay a uniform basic “hook up fee” that covers the cost of the shared infrastructure. Costs for the power should be a separate fee on top of that.

The approach of changing from the infrastructure separate from the cost of power would result in everyone paying for the infrastructure. This approach is already used by many customers such as agriculture and many commercial users.  For example, for agricultural users there is a monthly bill for hooking up to the service and a separate bill for the energy.  The more capacity (kilowatts) they need the more the infrastructure costs to deliver that peak capacity – large users pay a higher amount to cover the\t additional infrastructure cost. Separating the cost of infrastructure from the cost of power is already being done in many power sectors, and it has been shown to work as a means of ensuring that users pay for their fair share of the cost of delivering power.

The fixed infrastructure costs (those not tied directly to the cost of power) are on the order of 50% of the total power bill. Perhaps everyone should pay that amount equally. For example, right now the average residential electric bill for PG&E in California is $276 per month. That means that the flat fee infrastructure cost should be about $138 per month. Perhaps all residential users should pay that flat fee plus the cost of the power that they use. I believe a “fair” system would change everyone for the infrastructure separate from the cost of power. Solar generated electricity should be evaluated as a “net metered” average so that the bill is for the amount of power that is needed beyond what the solar produces.

My suggestion of billing each customer for the cost of their share of the infrastructure raises the question of how to evaluate that share. I think a customer with a 100amp service should pay less than a customer with a 200 amp service. The larger the service the greater the cost of the physical part of the infrastructure (wires, support structures, switching stations, etc). An added bonus to charging for infrastructure based upon maximum load this is that it automatically creates a bonus for people to store their solar energy (perhaps in batteries), thereby reducing the size of the service they need (or their maximum load). It would also incentivize them to reduce their use through various modes of conservation.  Limiting the size of the service to the maximum projected use would dramatically reduce the size requirements for infrastructure – putting us on the road to a renewable future.  The current “fix” goes exactly in the opposite direction.

However, while this approach is “equitable” in terms of people actually paying for what they use, it shifts even more infrastructure cost from those with solar to those without because solar uses would need a much smaller service and therefore pay less for their fair share of the infrastructure costs. It would be “fairer” but would also increase the cost of electricity for those without solar. I suppose this problem of “unfair” costs will remain until such time that all residential users have solar. In cases where it is not possible to effectively install solar perhaps there is a means for local community sharing of solar arrays.

A similar problem is getting ready to bite us with road taxes being embedded into gasoline prices.  The road tax is supposed to pay for the cost of the infrastructure (the roads).  But those that don’t buy gasoline because they have electric cars don’t pay for the infrastructure (the roads) – a very bad situation.  The cost of infrastructure needs to be put on the use of the infrastructure – miles driven (and weight), not gallons of gasoline used.  The solution is to charge (tax) per mile driven (adjusted for vehicle weight).  It would be a nuisance to have to report the mileage driven on tax forms, but it really would only have to be done once a year with taxes.  Perhaps this could be done automatically with the new internet connected vehicles. Then everyone pays for what they get – roads.