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Did he incite a riot?

After the first day of the impeachment trial an interesting question has emerged. It is pretty obvious that there was a riot, and the riot was pretty darned scary. It was in fact a really big deal. It is also pretty obvious that the riot would not have happened if Trump hadn’t done all that he had done on that day and the weeks beforehand. His insistence that the election was a fraud, his insults, his working up “his base” for weeks, months and years all contributed to and eventually led to the riot. His order to match on the capitol and fight like hell created the set and setting for what followed. His failure to do something once it was started perhaps let it go on for too long, which is hard to actually know because he didn’t try to stop it therefore there is no way to know if he had the power to do that or not.

So now the question is did he “incite” it, or was it just political theater that went crazy? If it was political theater, while it was really obscene and stupid, that might not equate to “incite”. If it was within the definition of “inciting a riot,” then it looks to me like most of the Republicans were at least partly to blame since they kept up the fake election drumbeat with him, they supported all of his claims of being cheated and his claims that the future of America was at stake. The only real difference is what was done on that stage, and Trump was only a small part of that – his lawyer and family were as involved as he was.

It is going to be an interesting couple of days to see how this unfolds, and if he is eventually impeached how the Republicans get their dirty hands out of it. My guess is that they can’t find a way to wash their hands of their culpability, and thus will stand united behind him. However, we will see. It is clear that it happened, it is clear that it would not have happened but for his actions and words, that it was really bad, that he knew that it was probably going to happen when he told them to march to the capitol, he knew what was happening throughout the afternoon, and it is also clear that he did next to nothing to attempt to stop it. In addition to this, it was a planned event (including the plans to violently attack the capitol), and Trump almost certainly knew about the details of the plans because they were posted in plain sight on the social platforms that Trump is known to monitor. He knew they were dangerous, he knew that they planned on a violent confrontation at the capitol, and he specifically “invited” (ordered?) them to attend. He then proceeded to tell them to march to the capitol and fight like hell. Not only was that all true, but the people following his orders understood that they were explicitly following his orders. He told them that they were his soldiers and they accepted the role (and he knew that was the case).

But does this all add up to something other than the lies, insults, crazy political rhetoric that had become the norm during his Presidency? Does “inciting a riot” involve more than getting a bunch of people together, get them worked up into a frenzy and then telling them to fight like hell? Does inciting a riot mean giving explicit, detailed, orders to do bad things in the frenzy of a riot, or is it enough to set it up, light the fuse, and let it take whatever course is taken after that? Is the crime one of being responsible for the outcome, or is it in the very act of setting the mob into motion? Is it necessary for there to be a prior conspiracy between the inciter and the rioters? I think not, I think the riot can be completely extemporaneous (which clearly was not the case in this event) and the charge of inciting the riot be valid. If a conspiracy was involved, is that a separate crime for a future date?

It should be an interesting few days.

Solar Eclipse (February 26, 1979)

At about 7:00 am, on February 26, 1979 there was a total eclipse of the sun near the town of The Dalles in Oregon.  Being a life long crazy guy about the stars, astronomy, and physics I really wanted to see this event.  At the time, my wife Mary Jo, my year and a half old son Kevin and I lived in McKinleyville, on the far north coast of California.  A little 500 mile jaunt to the The Dalles on the northern border of Oregon seemed like a reasonable weekend trip (even though the 26th was on a Monday and there was snow on many of the roads).  The physics department at Humboldt State University was making the trip and planned to watch the eclipse from an observatory on the north bank of the Columbia River.  However, since I had graduated from the department five years earlier, I was not invited to join their adventure.  That meant that I would have to make the trip on my own.  Mary Jo decided to accompany me with Kevin, which I found to be a great blessing that would really enhance the adventure.

My family and I headed north toward The Dalles on Sunday the 25th hoping to be in a good location by first light Monday morning so that we would have a view as the eclipse started at 8:00am.  Since we were poor at the time, in order to save expenses we decided to camp on Sunday night, get up early to see the eclipse, and then drive home that same day.  We would miss only two days from work this way, so it was really just a long weekend adventure.

The drive over highway 99 to Redding and then north up highway 5 to the region was uneventful.  Since it was the middle of winter, the camp grounds in Oregon were not full – in fact they were empty.  Luckily they weren’t all closed.  We found a beautiful campsite next to a crystal clear river.  The campsite was set in a grove of aspen trees, many of which had recently been felled by beavers.  It was cloudy and cold, but at least there was no snow. 

We spent a cold night sleeping in the back of my work van.  The van was just a shell that I used as a work-truck when building houses.  It had no insulation or other fancy things (no carpets, back seats or anything else).  Moisture kept forming in the ceiling and raining down upon us as we slept.  Our son had a fever and didn’t feel well.  We tried to stay warm as we settled into our sleeping bags – but it was not a very restful night.

At first light we woke up and headed east, looking for a good place to observe the eclipse.  The weather was not promising because it was mostly cloudy – the last thing you need for observing an eclipse is cloud cover.  However, as we traveled east, the clouds started to break up, becoming patchy in the dark sky (the moon is always dark when an eclipse of the sun occurs because it gets between the earth and the sun, hence no sunlight falls on the side that we observe). 

We finally came over a rise and found ourselves on the ridge of a hill that sloped down to the east.  The Columbia River was to our left (north) and in front of us was a great rolling wheat field, disappearing over the eastern horizon in front of us.  It made me think of looking across the fields of wheat in the Midwest.  It was almost time for the eclipse to begin, so we had to stop if we were going to catch the show.  We pulled off the road with a couple of other cars, and got out to wait.  By this time it was almost 8:00 am and the sun was up.  We could see the observatory with the other folks from Humboldt to the north, just across the river. They were in the shadows of the clouds with no view of the sun, we were standing in the sunshine.

We got out to watch the show, but unfortunately our son decided it was time to scream for attention.  Not a gentle cry, or something that could be remedied with a little food, but rather a full blown tantrum that required some serious attention.  It was one of those terrible, distressing moments in my life.  My son demanded attention, but the eclipse was starting and totality would last less than three minutes.  We had just driven ten hours getting here, and it would probably be the last time in any of our lives that we would see such a thing.  We were going into a 15 minute event; my opinion was that we just let him scream for 15 minutes and deal with him later.  He was a very colicky child and did this often.  My wife couldn’t bring herself to let him be for a few minutes, the mothering instinct was just too strong.  I wanted to watch the event, so I did – but with a huge amount of anger being directed at me for ignoring my son.  She was extremely forceful about making sure that she was going to deal with him, and ignore the eclipse.  I finally decided that even though I was clearly getting into lifelong trouble, I wanted to watch the eclipse – she would only take glances now and then, so I think she missed most of it.  It was really too bad, because we were in for such an amazing experience.  For the next 15 minutes I kept trying to point out what was happening, but by then she was so upset that I didn’t think she could really see the magnitude of the beauty that was all about us.

The day was breathtakingly beautiful.  Large clouds were swirling through the sky, dark ominous rain clouds with large breaks edged with bright white borders.  The sun was low in the eastern sky, lighting the wheat fields in a way that made them like golden waves reaching toward the horizon.  The fields dipped off to the river on the north which cut along the base of a bluff, where the observatory was located – still in deep shadows and rain.

Then it started.  The first thing that I noticed was that the fields felt like they were pulsating with light.  At first it was a gentle pulsation about a second apart.  They gradually become more evident and I could see that they were bands of shadows racing across the fields from the east toward us.  The shadow bands, as they are called, went perpendicular to their movement.  They looked like waves in a pond where someone had splashed a rock on the far side from where we stood.  They were very distinct, dark shadows and bright sunlight alternated between the lines of shadows marching toward us.  As they crossed our location, the light level went from almost dark, to full sunlight, which accounted for the pulsing.  The pulsing got to be so strong that it felt like my entire body and the earth were pulsing in a giant coordinated unity.  It jarred me.  I felt my entire body react with each pulse, which got faster and faster with time.

I looked down to the ground and saw that the shadows of things (my body, arms, hands, the car, trees, etc) had somehow grown long feathery hairs.  The hairs looked to be about a foot long and were wavy, they edged everything.  I am not sure, but I think they began to grow on things themselves, not just their shadows.  For some reason this is difficult to recall, I am not sure if the “feathery hairs” were just on the shadows, or on things too.

So there I was, pulsing with the light, seeing hair-like projections on everything, watching the moon slip across the front of the sun though my welding goggle lenses, as the day got darker and darker.  I was totally amazed and transfixed by the experience.

Then the moon finally lined up completely over the sun for the beginning of totality.  Everything went totally silent.  The pulses stopped, the shadows vanished, it felt like the breeze stopped blowing, and all noises stopped – we were suspended in complete stillness and solitude, while in the sky the sun blossomed into a huge shinning mandala of golden light encircling the black disk of the moon.  The sun became the size of a basketball held at arm’s length in front of your face. It was no longer a solid object with a defined surface, but rather it was a wispy, glowing, beautiful thing surrounding the dark central disk of the moon.  We all stood in awe at the majesty and beauty of the sight and feeling.  The cold air settled in my bones as I watched for the almost three minutes of totality.

Then the pulses started up again, slowly at first but quickly returning to their rapid pace. It all repeated, playing backwards in time.  I could see that across the river the observatory never got a glimpse of the magic that was playing out on our side of the river.  Too bad their luck failed them on that trip.

After the event was completed I felt like I had been carried into a dream, I was just standing there feeling like I had been blessed with some sort of universal magic.  It was a totally awe inspiring and huge experience.  It was nothing at all like what I had expected.  I had expected to see the day get dark, I had seen photos of totality so I expected to see the corona beyond the moon, I had heard that it got quiet as the birds went to sleep.  However, I didn’t know about the shadow bands, feathery hairs, or the feeling that it all forced upon me.  It was truly an overwhelming experience.  I can understand why it was such a big deal by the ancient ones, it IS a big deal.

It was finally over, and my son had finally calmed down.  I was in trouble with my wife, but was pleased at having been able to observe such a magnificent sight. I am still sorry that my wife couldn’t find a way to set a few minutes aside to fully appreciate the beauty of the event.  We left to travel home, taking a short cut over the mountains near Crater Lake.  The road past Crater Lake was open, but the snow was 15 feet or so deep.  We traveled over the mountains through canyons of snow, vertical walls fifteen to twenty feet on either side of the two lane road.  It was beautiful, but a bit scary, to be in such wilderness in the dead of winter, with almost no other traffic on the road.

A few years later we happened to be traveling in the desert near Needles, California.  We had heard of an ancient native America rock art work next to the Colorado River.  It was called the Topoc Maze.  It is located on a gentle rolling desert hillside.  The native peoples of the area had moved rocks into long parallel rows, some with the dark desert varnish showing, and some with the white side showing.  This pattern results in waves of light and dark lines going across the hillside.  It is hundreds of feet across, with the lines staying parallel to each other as they wrap across the hills and valleys of the area.  My first and current reaction is that they recreated the appearance of the shadow bands in rock.  It looks just the same to me as what I saw in Oregon on that cold and beautiful morning.  I think that the maze could be dated by finding out the date of the last full eclipse of the sun to go across that region.  I wrote to a noted expert in the field and told him my theory.  He shot back that it was impossible, that the Indians never did anything that didn’t have immediate practical use and they would never make art the attempted to reproduce real experiences.  I thought it was a pretty odd response, but it didn’t do much to change my mind. I can understand how they might have found an eclipse a moving enough event to want to copy in on the ground for whatever purpose.

Terrorists in America?

Last night was one of those times of laying awake for hours thinking about … well just thinking about all sorts of things.

A particularly scary thought came up with my wondering if it is possible that we are actually in the middle of something like an armed insurrection, something along the lines of those old novels such as Ray Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 or George Orwell’s 1984. I wondered how we would know, and what would it take to get us to do something about it. Perhaps more importantly, if there is an ongoing effort at an insurrection, what is the purpose?

One thing that seems to be common with all of this is a desire to be rid of government in all of its forms. Get rid of regulations, get rid of taxes, get rid of social support systems, get rid of bothersome laws concerning the separation of church and state, and of course outlaw abortion – just get it all out of our lives. What is never discussed is whether this also means getting rid of roads, schools, social security, research into health care, various forms of incentives to support things like job creation, efforts to ensure safe foods and other products, municipal water and sewage systems, the military, protection of the environment, etc. I wonder to what end the apparently push to eliminate the United States of America might be. (If we eliminate government we will at the same time eliminate the USA because it consists of the government). Obviously the point isn’t to eliminate everything, rather it is to overthrow the parts that are “bothersome.”

There are a lot of people in the USA and beyond that have an “insurrectionist bent” given what happened at the capital last month. We have been hearing about large numbers of people buying vast numbers of guns and ammunition, stockpiling weapons for some dangerous future. We see changes in the make up of the Supreme Count and the Republican side of congress, and we just experienced a rather unusual President. We are also trapped in a world where it is almost impossible to sort fact from fiction, and where many politicians have given up having even the pretense of being truthful – doublespeak and outright lies are the order of the day in some powerful positions.

What really popped into my head was the question of whether perhaps the covid-19 pandemic is being used as a type of terrorist activity. I wonder if it is possible that the “super spreader” events aren’t intentional actions in support of some sort of planned insurrection along the lines of Al Quaeda or other terrorist groups using germ warfare in place of terror in the form of suicide bombers, booby trapped bombs, beheadings and the like. This type of apparently random terror attacks are used as weapons in support of their efforts to overthrow their governments. The pandemic could provide a very convenient weapon with a similar outcome. I don’t think anyone intentionally started the pandemic, but perhaps since it is here it might as well be weaponized. That would account for the anti-masker/anti-distancing movements, as well as the continuing occurrence of superspreader events, that have combined to result in about 500,000 deaths (2.5 million deaths worldwide so far), and a similar number of ICU patients in the USA. We knew enough to stop the pandemic long ago using well known and proven actions to stop it by eliminating the spread, but many people have elected to take actions to prevent that from occurring. Killing that many people with suicide bombs would be impractical and might catch people’s attention, but doing it by subtle germ warfare is a lot more difficult to prove – although it is having similar impacts on people’s lives and the economy. Do these superspreader events represent loosely affiliated terrorist cells? Do the folks in their big pickups with giant American flags, and large groups with MAGA hats and Trump flags represent local cells? I wonder if many of those people are armed and ready to fight?

If the pandemic is in fact being used as a weapon in an ongoing insurrection, what is going to happen when it is finally brought under control with vaccines? Will this result in an escalation using real weapons, or will it continue in the form of legal battles in the halls of governments? And if it is an actual insurrection, what might the goals be beyond getting rid of government “interference?” It appears pretty clear that two major goals have something to do with furthering the causes of white supremacy and fundamentalist Christianity. If this is actually happening, how it is being funded? Does the funding come mainly from “regular” individuals, or are there a few major contributors, perhaps some of the richest people in the world believe they have something to gain by an insurrection. Maybe they see the possibility of not only having control of the money, but also have control of everything else as well. If there is an underground of insurrection with the goal of overthrowing our government, I wonder how long it has been going on.

Vaccine Today

Today my wife and I got the first covid-19 vaccination. I was willing to wait for awhile because my wife and I have been isolating so completely that I feel pretty safe. However, she was anxious to start the process so we can once again see our children and grandchildren, and there is no point in one of us doing so and not the other.

It was an amazingly simple process once we actually decided to do it. The county announced openings for people over 65 years old, which describes both of us. My wife went on line to the announced website and signed us up about ten days ago. The directions for getting there left a little to the imagination. They provided a time and a street address – but the street address didn’t show up on any maps or our GPS thing because it turns out it was just a parking lot, not an actual “place.” I figured that the street address must be enough to find signs directing us to the location. No such luck, there were no signs. However, once we got close enough we could see tents in a parking lot with lines of cars. Obviously that was it, but it took a couple of fairly long loops around long blocks to finally get to the entrance going in a direction that we could actually enter from. It turned out to be the parking lot of the local minor league baseball team – that information would have been a handy hint about where we were going. A non-existent street address wasn’t very informative, especially since we didn’t have any clue about whether it was a drive up affair, or an indoors event like that had been doing at the local basketball arena.

Once we managed to stop going down dead-end roads and found the correct one-way entrance it went amazingly smooth. There were traffic directors everywhere – seemingly dozens of them. We went through something like eight check points making sure we had a “ticket” appointment, had our paperwork filled out properly, asked about allergies, scanning our paperwork, etc, etc. Everyone was very pleasant, there were absolutely no waiting in line, and then we were through – sitting in a parking space while we waited for 15 minutes to go by so we could be on our way. The entire thing took perhaps thirty minutes total, but most of that time was spent being occupied with driving a hundred feet or so, being interviewed yet again, and moving on – we were distracted enough that the time wasn’t even noticeable. We even got a reservation for the next shot in three weeks.

I sure hope these vaccines work as advertised, and that new variants don’t show up that start it all up again. It is really too bad that people have been unable to control themselves enough to stomp it out at the very beginning. All of those who refused to take the simple precautions are directly responsible for most of the 450,000 deaths in America, soon to be over 500,000. In my mind, they are all guilty of the widespread impacts of the virus in America – pure and simple. They are aware that they are engaging in “super spreader” events, with the explicit intention of spreading the virus. If that wasn’t going on we could have been past this whole thing sometime in April 2020 and we all knew it (including the anti-maskers). We had the resources and knowledge necessary to stop the pandemic in our country – just like it was in those countries that actually followed the simple recommendations for six weeks and avoided the deaths, illnesses and huge financial impacts of being “free” to be stubborn.

However, we are still being stubborn as a nation, so we will drag out the costs and the deaths for another few months. It is so comforting to me to know that we are “free” to infect our family and neighbors, and to destroy the livelihood and savings of local businesses and friends. Freedom from being held responsible for the consequences of stupidity seems to be part of the American value system. We didn’t need any vaccines, and the deaths and illnesses weren’t foreordained – we just needed to have a sliver of caring for each other and as Trump said, “poof, as if magic it would have been gone,” but action was necessary to make that “magic” happen. Hopefully enough “anti-science” folks are willing to be vaccinated to get us beyond this whole event. I don’t have much confidence that they will do so and their behavior will drag this whole mess out for months more – but perhaps the vaccines will work and my wife, my family and my friends won’t die excruciating deaths. I understand that death is just around the corner for us, but I would rather not hurry it up so a bunch of stubborn people can proclaim their “freedom” to take “their” chances (along with those of mine and my loved ones). Perhaps we are turning a corner back to “normal” sometime this year.

Brother in Death Valley

Here are a couple of short accounts of my brother’s adventures in Death Valley. I suppose they could be called coincidences, although sometimes I wonder just how far you can stretch a coincidence.  I was on the sidelines of these experiences, observing my brother but not experiencing anything “out of the ordinary” myself.

It was in the late 1960’s when a group of us from the Eureka area of northern California decided to take a road trip to Death Valley.  I don’t recall all of the people who were on that trip, but there were probably ten or twelve of us, approximately the same number of men as women.   One of the couples in our group had purchased an old school bus, and we made a group effort to fix it up to function as a house car complete with a picnic table bolted to the floor, beds and various types of comfortable chairs for the trip.  There was a large wooden platform mounted on the top where we could ride for a more scenic, albeit rather dangerous, view.  Of course, it might not have been very safe to change from the “upper level” to the main level while traveling because we had to do it by crawling out of one of the side windows and pulling ourselves up and over the side of the platform to the top.  As unsafe as that seems now, that is how we did it while going down the highway.  I considered us to be just a group of friends off on a desert vacation, but I suppose all who saw us considered us to be a bunch of crazy hippies.  Both descriptions were correct.  When crossing the Golden Gate Bridge on the way south, the toll taker didn’t believe that we were a “house car” so he boarded our vehicle to check it out.  Since the table was bolted to the floor instead of being loose, we passed as a house car and saved some bridge fare.

On our way through San Francisco with our old school bus, we started the journey in the pre-dawn hours from my parent’s home in Sonoma, ending at dusk in the desert on the eastern edge of Death Valley.  We entered Death Valley from the east side, down a winding narrow canyon in order to avoid tourists as much as possible.   Before descending into the valley we decided to stop for the night and camp in an open area that was surrounded on three sides by high, many colored rock cliffs.  We slept under the stars, which is how I always like to sleep in the desert so I can watch the beauty of the stars slowly circling overhead.

I woke up at my normal time before dawn when you can feel the air change to become cooler in advance of the glow of dawn.  When it got light enough to move around I found my older brother, Michael, sitting cross-legged facing the soon to be rising sun in the eastern sky.  As the light got brighter, the colors of the place intensified until we were sitting in the middle of an amazing palette of blazing colors on the walls of the cliffs surrounding us.  My brother complemented that blaze of color because he had been up early working with a box of pastels.  He had painted himself from head to foot with a wild, bright, sunburst design reflecting the reds, yellows, browns and whites of our surrounding – he was quite regal in his naked splendor.

I watched him for a while before asking him what he was doing.  He said that he was calling the lizard to come to him.  I hadn’t noticed that there was a fairly large lizard doing its morning “pushups” on a rock about thirty feet in front of him.  Wondering how this lizard calling was going to work out, I just sat still and watched.  To my amazement, the lizard slowly made its way across the ground until it came to Mike’s foot.  Then it climbed up on him, making its way up to Mike’s shoulder, turned facing the same direction as my brother, and seemed to settle down to watch the sun come up! There was my brother Mike and the lizard, waiting for the sun to come up over the cliffs and heat up the day.

Our next camping spot on the trip was to be at the Race Track toward the northwest side of Death Valley.  This place consists of a large, dry lake that has many small to medium sized boulders sitting on its surface.  The boulders apparently move about on the surface of the lake bed, as evidenced by trails that they leave in the hardened mud, attesting to their movement.  The interesting thing about this is that the trails go in all directions, even crossing one another at various locations.  It appears that the rocks do not move in a coordinated manner, sometimes some go one way, and sometimes others go another.  I have heard lots of theories about what causes the movement, and how the paths manage to cross each other, but none of the theories seem entirely satisfactory. 

The road to the Race Track is a very long, desolate, dirt road through the desert.  We had been driving for quite some time along this road, seeing no other vehicles, when we were stopped because a car was broken down smack in the middle of the road and we couldn’t get by.  In the car was a man, his wife and his teenage daughter.  Of course we got out of our bus to see what we could do to help, which apparently scared the man half to death.  (This was about the time of Charles Manson, which had people a bit nervous about hippies in the desert.) The man made his women sit in the car, roll up the windows, and lock the doors while he got out to talk to us.  He told us that his car had stopped running and wouldn’t start again. 

We flew into action, bringing out the large supply of mechanics tools that we had packed under the assumption that our old bus would break down, and started to work on his car.  He looked very apprehensive about all of us getting out of the bus, and even more so when we had him open the hood and we started taking things apart.  At one point we had removed the carburetor and had taken it completely apart in our search for the problem.  I understand  being stuck in the middle of nowhere with a couple of women, and a bus load of wild haired, oddly clothed hippies would make any sane person nervous.  We managed to get his car going (it was a carburetor problem), and he finally drove out of there – very relieved I would guess.  He was so anxious to get going that he neglected to thank us for our assistance.  We found his failure to thank us to be kind of funny, he surely would have if he had been in his “normal” mind – but this encounter was just too much for that.  I don’t think he was aware of it, but it was obvious that his daughter wanted to get out of the car and join our fun.  She clearly wasn’t afraid of the spectacle that we must have presented.

I found this entire event to be quite funny because of the range of points of view expressed by the various participants, and how that those points of view were shaping their perceptions and experiences.  Our little group of “crazy hippies” wasn’t really so crazy at all.  We consisted of a group of college educated and highly skilled friends and family, out for a fun adventure in the desert. When we came upon the stranded family in the middle of nowhere our goal was to help them out and make sure that they were safe – which we did.  The husband’s view appeared to be that was in great danger, first by being unprepared and stranded in the middle of the desert and secondly by encountering a bunch of strange people and being forced to accept their help.  The daughter’s view appeared to be that she was trapped stuck in the back seat of the car, rather than being able to get out and play with the hippies.  All of these views shaped our interactions and our emotions.  I found myself in a mental space where I stepped back and observed the event from the perspective of each participant, noticing the very different emotions that their individual assumptions were creating.

That night we camped next to the Race Track. In the morning we decided to go hiking for an adventure.  We left camp just after sun rise, heading across the flat, dry lake bed and over the hills.  We had no maps or other means of navigating; we were just planning on exploring the surrounding desert and return after making a large circle in the desert during the day.  As we were leaving camp, my brother told me that he was going to get a bird that day.  I found this to be a rather odd statement since there were very few birds in the desert that time of year, and we had nothing to “get” them with.  I just nodded and wondered what that was all about.

We hiked up hills, down into valleys and across the desert going no place in particular, just wandering around, exploring the desert.  At about lunch time we came upon an abandoned mine site. There were lots of old metal things, rusted vehicles, abandoned mine shafts and other evidence of mining activity.  There was also an old, abandoned house trailer.  The windows were broken out, and the door swung on its hinges, so it was obviously not really trespassing to enter it.  My brother entered first, and I followed him.  He entered through the back door and walked right to the front where the kitchen was located.  He stopped in front of a kitchen cabinet, opened the cabinet door, reached in and picked up a perfectly preserved beautiful little dead bird!  Its feathers were clean and shiny, with shades of blue and red glistening in the sun.  So this is what he meant; he indeed did get a bird that day.

What is the energy story?

I have been noticing an uptick in the number of articles comparing the relative cost and environmental impacts of “sustainable” energy and hydrocarbon energy that attempt to “prove” that hydrocarbon fuels are much less expensive and have a tremendously smaller environmental impact than wind or solar power. Some of these point to the fact that these technologies require mining for raw materials and end up with lots of waste at the end of their lives – as if none of that applies to gas, oil or coal. I think this is a pretty brazen attempt to make total poppycock somehow “make sense.” Sure, all sources of power have negative environmental impacts, but to say that hydrocarbons have none while wind and solar are so bad as to be unacceptable is unconscionable.

However, as is so often the case – there is a grain of truth in the warnings that wind and solar aren’t exactly “clean” – they come with their own set of problems. Depending upon how they are integrated into the overall power supply system, these “green” technologies are not only far from “green” but can have negative impacts as to be totally unacceptable. As currently use, large wind turbines fit into this category because they produce no net renewable energy. They require so much backup support from low efficiency hydrocarbon power plants (“peaker plants”) that the overall output is the same as if neither they, and their backup support power plants, were ever built. With regard to energy and production of carbon dioxide, they are a push and do nothing useful for the environment, the use as much hydrocarbons as would be the case without the wind turbines because much higher efficiency power plants can be used. When you add the impacts of making these devices, making the cement to mount them, the number of birds they kill, and what they do to the local environment it is very clear that they should never have been built and should be removed ASAP. Maybe they will eventually produce a positive amount of energy if, or when, sufficient electrical storage capabilities are provided. So far that hasn’t happened, and it is very likely that the current crop of wind turbines will be torn down and replaced before sufficient storage is provided.

This type of tit-for-tat discussion about the relative merits of various sources of power misses the real point, which is that instead of trying to replace the hydrocarbon fuels with “sustainable” sources of energy, we should be reducing our energy footprint so we don’t need so much power. If an argument doesn’t start there, but instead only talks about how to match (or exceed) or current energy demand from a different source of power there is never going to be an acceptable solution.

The interesting thing about reducing energy demands is that it does not include a requirement to reduce the benefits that we get from using energy. It doesn’t mean hotter, or colder, homes. It doesn’t mean going to back to model T cars (which were gas guzzlers 1927 models got an average of 7.6 mpg), but rather forward to cars that are even better, more comfortable, quieter and safer than today’s models (which are pretty darned good when compared to any cars made in the past). It doesn’t mean that production, or construction costs of buildings or machinery costs are higher to pay for the new much higher efficiency, in fact it means much lower costs in almost all cases. For example, we currently have the technology to produce light bulbs that use less than 1 watt to make as much light as an old fashioned 100 w light, but costs the same to manufacture – with the additional bonus that the average life is similar to the new “long life” LED lights that use 10 watts but cost $6 (or more). Everywhere you turn there are similar savings in energy use and initial cost, coupled with better products.

It is hard to be positive about why this situation exists, but I have a suspicion that it has something to do with the fact that the savings associated with energy efficiency go to the user, not to the power producers or distributors. It looks to me like we have enough opportunities to reduce the amount of energy that we need to do what we currently do with less than 25% of what we are using. The thing is that this requires building things with that in mind rather than just continuing to do what we are doing and wondering why it doesn’t change. It means taking the big look to keep the “big system picture” in view while looking at the microscope view of specific technologies at the same time. Instead of subsidizing large scale “renewable energy” we should be assisting efforts to increase efficiency. The goal is to meet our needs, not to make power (unless you are in the business of selling power).

An example of what I am talking about with regard to the big picture is with the new fleet of electric cars that GM promises to deliver by 2035. Electric cars have the potential for many great efficiency savings, with average energy use of the equivalent of 60 mpg or more (probably quite a bit more by they time they have made the transition). This means using about 1/3 of the energy for cars as we do now without changing or driving needs. But …. this means using a lot more electrical energy for transportation, and it also means that the energy has to be stored onboard the car. Not an inconsequential question is related to deciding how do to store the energy? Batteries are quick, easy, available – and a terrible solution because of the vast amounts of rare and difficult to obtain metals required in their production. Perhaps by 2035 some other type of battery will be available that minimizes the mining footprint, but perhaps not. Maybe fuel cells would be a far better solution. They use far less rare materials, are much less expensive to create, are much lighter, and are a proven solution. However, that means making hydrogen for the fuel, and transporting it from wherever it is made to where it is used. Currently, almost all hydrogen is made using hydrocarbons. It is possibly to electricity from solar, or perhaps hydrocarbons produced by bio-reactors using “waste” plant matter from land fills, logging processes, agriculture and others. But that requires building an efficient infrastructure. Maybe the hydrogen can be made locally using solar electricity. All of these problems have solutions, most of the micro-view solutions are known and in place, it is the larger big-system picture of how to create the required infrastructure that stands in the way of this approach. Creating a complete revision of our transportation energy supply seems like a daunting task, but it has been done before and can be done again. The first automobiles got their petrol from drug stores in quart containers – in many countries that is still how it is purchased, but from curb side stalls instead of drug stores. We can provide the infrastructure once we know what is needed, and that takes a decision – not new technology.

Assuming we have the will to reduce our energy footprint to something like 20% of our current use, then the question of how do we provide it becomes very different. In California, the necessary energy if efficiency is embraced can be provided by continuing to use the current hydroelectric dams, the current geothermal power plants, increasing the harvest of plant based hydrocarbons from landfills and other types of plant “waste” at the same time creating vast quantities of highly valuable compost for agricultural use and expanding the use of local “rooftop” solar generation. At that point we won’t need fossil fuels, wind generators, or nuclear power plants – and we will have almost zero green house gas production from our energy sector.

Mayfield Mall

This event occurred a few days before Christmas of 1968 when I was 21 years old.  My fiancé, Katie, and I were spending a few days over the Christmas holiday with her parents in Palo Alto, California (in “Silicon Valley”).  It had been a hectic year at college so we hadn’t yet finished our Christmas shopping. The two of us went to a nearby shopping mall (the Mayfield Mall) to see what we could find.  The mall was busy, but since it was early in the morning it was not packed or in a “Christmas rush” mode. It was kind of fun to just relax and watch people coming and going. The mall was all decorated in the spirit of the season, with Christmas music playing softly in the background.  Everyone seemed in a good mood that day. Since Katie was the one who was most interested in shopping, we decided that I would hang out in the open part of the mall, watching folks, while she did her shopping. 

I picked a spot near the main entrance that was out of the pedestrian traffic, but close enough to watch the comings and goings of folks.  I was in a covered courtyard that connected the entrance to the shops on either side of a wide hallway going off in an easterly direction.  There was a little roll-around flower cart next to where I was standing, and a bench about 20 feet away, facing me but facing away from most of the foot traffic. 

I was leaning against a railing along the wall when I noticed two men on the bench.  They were Hispanic-looking men, sitting and talking to each other.  One was an older gentleman wearing an old, slightly floppy, wide-brimmed felt hat and neat, clean, “farmer” cloths.  He was dressed like what I would expect an older, rural, Mexican gentleman to wear when he went shopping in town.  The other man was younger, slightly chubby, wearing slacks, white shirt and tie. 

At first I didn’t pay much attention to them because they were just a couple of guys sitting and chatting, probably waiting for their women just like I was.   However, I then noticed that they were watching me very intently, and apparently talking about me. This caught my attention, especially when I realized that I could easily hear what they were saying – in clear English with no apparent accent.  The old man gestured toward me and told the younger one that I was a physicist, and had worked at NASA.  (I was majoring in physics at the time and had spent a summer working for NASA at Moffett Field).  He then went on to describe my summer job at NASA and added other specifics about me that should have been impossible to know.  They were both watching me in a most unusual way, it felt like there were catching me in a “spell” of some sort.  I found myself connected to them, and oddly disconnected from the rest of the environment and people in the mall.  It was like I was floating in suspended animation wrapped in a cocoon with those two men. 

After a few seconds (minutes?) of this, I got a really embarrassed feeling because I felt that I was somehow being stripped naked by these guys.  In my embarrassment I stepped behind the flower cart to get out of the “heat” of the moment, and hide from them.  My action broke my spell and I was immediately overwhelmed with curiosity.  I quickly turned back, determined to go up to them and ask them who they were and how they knew these personal things about me.  I had the very clear impression that the two men were Carlos Castaneda and his teacher Don Juan and I wanted to know for sure.  It couldn’t have been more than two or three seconds before making this decision and turning back.  I spun around to confront them, but they were gone! 

I looked around the mall, but even though the mall floor was 60 or 70 feet wide, and there were only a handful of people on the floor at that moment, I could see clearly that they were not in the halls.  I wondered if maybe they had somehow gotten up and left through the entrance a couple of dozen feet away, which would have been the only possible way for them to have gotten out of sight.    I ran to the entrance and checked it, the attached hall and the parking lot, but they were not there.  My only explanation is that they vanished into thin air; they were just gone (or maybe hadn’t actually been there).

At that moment I realized that I had failed an important test that Carlos Castaneda had discussed in one of his earlier books.  Don Juan had told Carlos about “cracks, or slivers, of opportunity” that open into the other side of reality. He said that we have to stay awake to be able to jump into them at the moment they open.  Somehow those men opened such a crack of opportunity for me, but instead of reacting immediately to the opportunity, I become confused and embarrassed.  I missed the moment, and once I missed it – it had closed and was gone.   It became clear to me that one of the main things that a warrior on the path to enlightenment needs to do is become aware and quick enough to spot opportunities and jump – to jump or step through the opening.  It is like being a cat, watching and watching (stalking) for the moment, but once the moment is right, then putting all of your energy into pouncing to catch the opportunity.

Katie showed up looking for me and found me frantically running up and down the mall looking in vain for those men.  I knew that they weren’t there, but I wanted to make sure that I hadn’t overlooked some obvious and mundane explanation for their disappearance.  She just laughed at me as I babbled on about the weird non-encounter encounter. 

Software safety vs hardware safety

Because I am a system safety engineer it seems appropriate to write about safety now and then. This post is one of those times.

A couple of events over the past few days have gotten me to wondering. One event was a meeting with system safety engineering friends of mine. The topic of “software system safety” came up for discussion. This issue is concerned with how to deal with the safety aspects of software that controls machinery – all types of machinery including missiles, aircraft and the current hot topic of driverless automobiles. Obviously there can be a few safety considerations with software controlling this type of equipment, especially with the newer “smart” software that teaches itself! The question is along the lines of “how do we ensure that the software will control the machine in a way that is safe?”

When boiled down to the basic bottom line, system safety is a process of analyzing and/or understanding a system (thing, product, operation – whatever), figuring out what bad things could happen, figuring out what could cause those bad things, figuring out how to prevent them from happening, and then doing what is necessary to implement the control measure(s) (as well as verifying that what you think will work is actually in place and actually solves the problem). This is not an easy task, but luckily there are a few techniques to help with this.

There is general agreement that the process that I sketched above works for “hardware” because it is relatively easy to visualize the parts and interactions, and it is apparently relatively straightforward to test and simulate whatever needs to be tested. It is usually judged to be “simple” in comparison to the situation involving complex software controlling critical systems. Software is considered more complex because it is not unusual to have millions of lines of software code written by a large number of individuals (and computers in some instances) and all of which is highly interconnected in ways that are extremely difficult to visual in sufficient detail to have much confidence that all of the potential logical “paths” through the code. It is extremely difficult to ensure that all such paths have been analyzed, designed and tested to prevent some sort of safety problem during operation. One advantage of software is that it doesn’t exactly “fail” – it does the same thing given the same input every single time – unless something changes in the hardware system that runs the software. These “somethings” can be bit changes because of cosmic rays, speed differences in various components changing the order of information being processes (referred as “race conditions”), various ‘hiccups’ where a portion of the hardware (perhaps a microprocessor” stalls for an instant (think about having to reboot windows because it “hangs up” – which would not be such a good thing while landing a jet liner), dropping data, and many many more potential “hardware” problems that change how the “software” operates.

Because of the apparent increase of complexity and a decrease in visibility for software controlled systems, there has been a strong push to do “something different” for software than for hardware. (I use the world “apparent” because I don’t think any system is as obvious as it appears to be.) The software folks insist that their stuff is so different that an entirely new approach is required, one that somehow does follow the model that I sketched out in a previous paragraph.

It has been my contention that there is nothing particularly new or different with software safety engineering than what I sketched out in a previous paragraph. We still have to do the same things, but we might do them a little differently because of the nature of the system under investigation. I have lots of ideas about how to approach that, but in general they are all just more of the same thing that I do for all systems. One point that the software folks seem to ignore (or maybe don’t recognize) is that almost all systems depend critically upon inherently invisible “software” logic systems – it is just that a lot of the software is embedded in the squishy matrix of people’s brains. Ultimately, almost all safety is not only dependent upon hardware acting as it should, but that the control “systems” do the same. Unfortunately people’s minds are not nearly as predictable from person to person, or within the same person at different times. Including the impacts of people in the system is a MUCH more difficult problem than anything that software controls can generate. So at a basic level, it is all based upon some sort of unanalyzable control system.

One of the things that the software folks like to point up as being inherently different from hardware is that there are so many possible paths through the logic that it is extremely difficult to identify the possibilities, and even harder to test all of them out. This is where the “hardwood” part of my story comes in.

A couple of days ago I was outside preparing for a “hard freeze” forecast by the weather guessers. In central California this means putting towels or other coverings over exposed water pipe and covering delicate plants. While doing that I turned a corner around a post and ran smack into a short piece of 2×4 wood that had been screwed onto the post at head height. I am a slow learner, but being smacked in the head with a 2×4 woke me up enough to check out the safety of the situation. Upon inspection, it was obvious that the 2×4 had been installed many years ago (probably by me) for some long forgotten purpose. This “hazard” was on a predictable path (similar in concept to the software logical paths) to causing an accident. I find it interesting that the “hazard” had been created long ago, had been what should have been an obvious issue at that time, when the original purpose had been abandoned the hazard “should have been” identified and removed. the identification and removal process could have been applied each time someone (such as myself) walked down the path past the obvious hazardous condition.

It was very much like one of those “special” software “features” that everyone is so worried about. My board was similar to something that was put into the code for some sort of good reason, but then was abandoned – but not removed or “disarmed.” Once the situation changed, it “all of a sudden” came back to life. The thing that changed in the case of my head banger was that it was raining making the ground muddy and slippery, Therefore, I was looking down to avoid tripping and slipping instead of looking up where I would have seen the board just like I had for many years previously. It was never a problem (“hazard”) before because it was in plain sight, obvious, easy to avoid – and I avoided it.

The point it that almost all system safety problems have features like; otherwise they would not exist because they would have been recognized and fixed. What appears to be obvious in hind sight isn’t so obvious in the moment. Software has a similar problem, and so do simple things such as that board that didn’t actually “do” anything, it was just there – as an innocuous “feature” of my barn. I see no reason to treat software as anything special, or something that has unusual properties other than it can become involved with turning “hazards” into “accidents” – just like has happened with all accidents. Of course that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t require special tools, techniques and knowledge to “solve” the safety problem, just like most everything else in the universe of system safety requires special tools, techniques and knowledge. Rather than spending a lot of time and effort attempting to figure out what is “special” about software safety, I think it is best to figure out how it integrates with hardware and people, and in finding engineering and management tools capable of ensuring that hazards are identified and controlled.

Love and Lust

This story is about love, lust and heartbreak.  While this isn’t really a story of the “other side,” it is a time that fundamentally changed me in ways that are still unknown to me. This story concerns the first time that I learned that it is possible for me to lose connection with almost everything outside of the focus of my attention. 

At the time of this story I lived in a tiny house on Q Street, just west of downtown Arcata.  It wasn’t exactly a house; in fact it was barely a building.  The floors were rotten, the roof leaked, the porch was rotting off, there were rats running around at night, and a dried dead rat somewhere inside of the couch in the living room.  (The dead rat had stopped smelling long before I moved in.)  However, it was in a nice quiet neighborhood next to an abandoned saw mill and VERY affordable.  Part of the agreement that I had with the landlord was that in exchange for low rent I would tear the building down when I moved out!  I had cheap rent, but a difficult job to do at the end. 

At that time I spent quite a lot of time at my brother’s rooming house in town and knew all of the roomers.  One of the roomers, Bill, brought his girlfriend Darlene by to visit.  I liked Bill, but found his girlfriend to be mesmerizing.  However, since they were a couple I stayed out of it and didn’t do anything to interfere.  I just watched and appreciated her from afar.

The three of us got to be friends. One day they invited me to go to the beach with them.  We went to College Cove, north of Trinidad, for the day.  College Cove is a traditional college student hang out, featuring nude sunbathing, beautiful beaches, very cold ocean water, lots of beer, and occasional big parties.  At that time it was only used by younger folks because the access down to the beach was treacherous. Access was by way of a tiny slippery, steep, muddy trail down the hill from the bluff to the beach.  Darlene seemed to be having trouble navigating the trail, so I stayed with her and helped her down and back up at the end of the day.  On the other hand, Bill ran and slid down the hill and was on the beach long before we worked our way down. We hung out on the beach, just enjoying the water and beauty of the place.  Nothing special happened that day, we just talked and played as friends. 

I met Darlene the next day and she said that she had a wonderful time, really liked me, and wanted to do things with me instead of with Bill.  This was slightly confusing to me since she was my friend’s girlfriend.  I considered her “off limits.”  She explained her reasons, including the statement that she was going to break up with him in any case.  I agreed with her proposition to be more than mere friends and we started hanging out together as a couple. 

She was a theater major, so I spent a great deal of time visiting her in the theater department. I would stop by and visit as often as I could, thoroughly enjoying the other theater students.  I got to know everyone, was welcomed back stage during rehearsals and productions, got to help in the make-up room and building stage sets.  Darlene designed and made costumes, so I spent time in the costume department visiting her and her friends.  I was really amazed with the process of the process of painting very fluid looking watercolor paintings of the costumes, watch them be transformed into doll sized ¼ scale models, and finally into full gowns worn on the stage.

I was having a marvelous time.  Darlene and I spent most of our free time together talking, walking on the beach or in the woods, cooking for each other, making love, and all of those things that lovers do.  At one point she wanted to go to the Pleasure Faire in Marin County, so she made us really neat costumes.  She made my costume by purchasing standard patterns at the fabric store, then modifying them to fit her design and my body.  The Pleasure Faire was intimidating to me, but she got right into the swing of things and played the part to the fullest.  She ended up on a stage giving a production, and talked and acted in the style of the ancient times.  She was being very theatrical and visible; I was being very shy but enjoying being included in the “inner circle” of theatrical folks. 

Fall came, and we just continued to enjoy our time together.  I was in bliss, feeling so open and free because I had found someone who always looked delighted to see me, who welcomed my attentions, who seemed to love me, and who just liked to play. I found it amazing that I could be on top of the hill on campus and could pick her out of the crowd of hundreds from far away just by the way that she moved and walked.  It was almost as if it was a black and white view, but she was colored bright yellow.  My attention would instantly go to her, even when it seemed impossible to distinguish her in the crowd.

One day I met her in front of the theater building, and while talking to her on the sidewalk she told me that we were through.  She said that I was being too forceful, was paying too much attention to her, and that she felt too confined by my attentions.  I tried to talk to her, but she wouldn’t talk.  She just said that it was time to move on, and that our relationship was finished.  And then she walked away.

I was stunned.  The day instantly turned from being a pretty fall day to one of pain, fear and darkness.  I could hardly breathe, and couldn’t think at all.  My mind just started swirling around as I replayed the events that we had enjoyed together wondering how I could have so missed the clues that must have been there.  Up until that instant I had no idea that we weren’t both feeling the same.  Obviously I was wrong; I would never have considered breaking our relationship off because she wanted to spend too much time with me!  She had a much different view of things than me, but I was blind to the differences until that moment.

I wandered around for a couple of hours in shock, trying to understand what had just happened.  I couldn’t. It was too unexpected and too far from anything that I understood.  I finally decided to take my old Renault for a ride to see if that might help clear my head and soothe the pain.  I had no idea where I was headed, in fact, I wasn’t really headed anywhere. I just wanted to do something to occupy my mind.  I went east on highway 299, toward the Sacramento Valley.  The highway was steep and twisting, I was driving too fast. 

I eventually came to the town of Willow Creek and decided that I had driven enough and had been lucky to have stayed on the road.  It was getting late in the afternoon, and I decided to stop at a local bar and have a beer before returning home.  I pulled into the parking lot of the first bar that I came to, which was an old time rustic affair.  The front door faced on the street, but I entered through the side door to the parking lot.  It took my eyes a little while to get used to the darkness.  I walked up to the long bar and ordered a beer.  At the far end of the bar, near the front door, there were four or five guys who obviously worked in the woods because they were dressed in the traditional black pants with the cuffs torn off (to let them rip should they get caught by a cable or snag of a tree), plaid shirts with suspenders, and boots.  They all appeared to be local Indians. I guessed they were probably from the nearby Hoopa reservation.  I didn’t pay much attention to them.  There was also an “older” white guy and his much younger, blond girlfriend standing near where I had ordered my beer.

The old guy started up a conversation about nothing in particular.  He was a friendly, jovial kind of a guy who seemed to be enjoying himself and his lady friend.  I was immediately attracted to the blond, even though she appeared to be completely out of place because of  her dress and manner.  She was obviously a city lady, probably from Los Angeles.  My first reaction was that she was a “floozy” but found her to be pretty, engaging, flirtatious and funny.

I finished my beer and started to leave, but they asked me to stay and have a beer on them.  That sounded good to me, so I let them buy me a beer and settled in to talk a bit. The man then started to tease me about my pony tail and long beard.  I took it as a joke, and just played along.  Then he pulled on my beard, which I didn’t like much.  However, when I showed a bit of a reaction, he bought me another beer – which settled me down again.  His girlfriend started flirting with me, which caught my attention – even though she was ten years older than me, she was quite attractive.  They played back and forth for awhile, doing things to irritate me, and then soothing me.  He encouraged his girl to flirt, then would get pushy about it.  It was an odd little cat and mouse game.  I would start to leave, he would buy a beer.  I would start to get angry; she would snuggle up and flirt with me.  I was getting kind of disoriented, as well as pretty drunk.  The Indians at the other end of the bar were watching, but not joining in the activities.

At one point he grabbed my pony tail and pulled me along the bar.  This really got me mad.  I stood up to him and said that was too much, if he wanted to act like that we could go outside and have a fight. I was pretty strong at that point in my life, and felt like I could take on anyone.  This was not my normal way of acting, but for some reason that is where I ended up that day.  He just laughed at me and asked if I knew who he was.  I said I hadn’t a clue, but that it didn’t matter, I wasn’t putting up with his actions any longer.  He introduced himself as “Rocky.”  I said, “nice to meet you Rocky, I am Charlie.”  Then I reiterated my challenge, which he turned down.  He then bought me another beer, and left with his girl friend.

Now I was sitting alone at the end of the bar furthest from the Indians.  I could see that they were pretty drunk, and were not looking at all friendly.  In fact, they were looking positively hostile.  The bartender came over and said that he heard them talking among themselves and that they were planning to beat me up and steal what little money I had in my pocket (they wouldn’t have gotten much) when I left the bar.  This was a problem! 

The bartender asked if I knew who I had been “playing” with.  I said I had no clue.  He then told me that I had just asked Rocky Marciano (the World Heavyweight boxing champion) to go fight in the parking lot!  I guess I lucked out when he wouldn’t take me up on the offer. I think by the laws of the day he couldn’t fight me or it would have been attempted murder.  The bartender told me that Rocky came every year to Willow Creek to hunt deer, fish in the rivers, and just spend time in the mountains. 

As I was sitting there wondering how I was going to get out of there alive, Rocky walked back in.  He said that he was worried about me and the Indians, and had come to rescue me.  He walked me to my car and said goodbye in a nice friendly way. I was relieved that I no longer had to try to figure out how to get out of there.  (Rocky was killed in a plane crash the following year at the age of 45, so he wasn’t really such as old guy after all.)

By now it was dark and raining.  The drive back down off of the mountain was going to be a little more difficult because it was difficult to see, the roads were slick, and I was drunk.  I was driving too fast down the hill going around a sharp turn when my headlights went out.  Now I was in real trouble, all of a sudden I couldn’t see the road.  I tried to remember the corner, but hadn’t been paying all that much attention. 

Then I noticed smoke and fire coming from under my dashboard, so I guessed that the wires had burned and shorted.  I reached under the dash with my right hand while steering with my left, grabbed a handful of wires and crushed them together.  Amazingly, the headlights came back on so I could see to get around the corner.  The wires were still burning and sparking, burning my fingers and the palm of my hand.  However, I could at least see and made it around the corner.  I stopped the car by the side of the road and checked out the wiring.  It appeared to be working, so I continued down the hill to home.  I finally made it home and fell exhausted into my bed, worn out by a day that seemed to go on forever.  

In the morning when I woke up it felt like I had woken up from a huge dream.  It seemed like I had been in some kind of trance during my time with Darlene.  I was unable to recall many of the details of what had happened during that period of time.  I tried to think about how long it was, but couldn’t really put a date on it. I thought that it must have been a year or more, but that didn’t seem right because the seasons hadn’t changed and things that happen during a year hadn’t.  Confused, I went to find my brother to ask him what the date was.   It took me awhile to figure out the month, and then the day, and found it had only been a couple of months.   I searched around papers on my desk and figured out what classes I was enrolled in, and what I was doing there.  Somehow I hadn’t flunked out of my math and physics classes, but I think I missed almost everything being taught.  I found my school books and some homework that I had somehow done.  I must have been attending classes and doing things, but I didn’t recall it then, and still don’t have any memory of those activities.  I managed to pass all of my classes, but only by attending them in some kind of a fog.

It felt like an extra year in my life.  I had all of these experiences, all that I would expect in a year or year and a half, but it only took two months.  It remains an odd period of my life that just doesn’t fit into the rest of it.  It was a kind of side trip into love and lust, ending in heartbreak.  I was crushed for weeks because I missed the feeling of bliss and joy that had made time stand still for me, but was finally out of my trance.  

Protection from Covid?

I have been noticing a troubling development with regard to people’s thoughts about how protective their measures to avoid infection have been. I first noticed this with myself, which “tuned up” my ears so I am now recognizing a major problem everywhere. In the early days when the nature of the covid threat was unknown, those of us that were concerned enough to take the need for protection seriously were very careful. We wore masks, washed our hands, sanitized surfaces, sanitized groceries, sometimes wore gloves, etc. We tried to learn how long the virus lived on various surfaces, how far it would spread in the air – and for how long, etc. Over time we were told that perhaps some of this isn’t quite as important – maybe social distancing is good enough sometimes, maybe we don’t need to be quite so fussy about surfaces, maybe we can relax a bit. And for most of us, we haven’t gotten sick – so obviously our lower measures are effective. Clearly we don’t need to “always” wear masks, don’t need to wash our hands after touching anything outside of our homes, don’t need to scrub down the cereal boxes.

The problem comes from out having no way to determine if, or when, there is an actual threat. We don’t know when viruses are present on surfaces, or in the air, or if a person is infected. The “positivity rate” in California is sometime like 2.6% meaning that 2.6% of people that get tested are positive (infected). Unfortunately, that is based upon those that get tested for some reason, meaning that most of them have concerns (or actual knowledge) that they might have been exposed. It is not a random selection, therefore it is almost certainly quite high. The real percentage of people testing positive is probably closer to 1% (one person out of a hundred), with pockets of much higher values and others that have rate that is much lower – but we don’t know where those locations are and they move so even if we knew it would be “yesterday’s” information, not necessarily reflecting what it is now. That means that perhaps less than 1 out of 100 people walking around are actively infected. The chances of encountering that person is slim. For example, I find myself in a building with other people perhaps once a month, potentially being exposed to maybe 5 people a month – and that exposure is while maintaining distance and everyone wearing a mask. Did the distancing and masks help? Who knows? It is highly unlikely that any of the people that I was remotely in “contact” with was infected – therefore I have zero knowledge or feedback on whether or not the protections were effective. But since I didn’t get sick I assume my protective measures worked. Perhaps they did, and perhaps they didn’t – I have no information to inform me on those topics.

After almost a year of performing my mini-tests, I find that I am getting pretty complacent – and I see a lot of other people getting extremely complacent. I often hear people say things like, “I see this person regularly, but we both take our precautions so it is very safe to do so.” Really??? Perhaps if you both really take all of those precautions, but I know you don’t because I watch and see that hand washing is seldom done, I see distancing much less than six feet (which is bogus in any case – it needs to be more like 30 feet to be marginally effective), I see nose-out masking, I see people spending time inside with others. All is well until one of the people that are assumed “safe” no longer are. When nobody is infected the protective measures appear to be highly effective (because they aren’t needed). Those same degraded protections might well not be effective once that situation changes and they are actually needed – but we have no way of knowing if, or when, that has occurred.

We are entering a period of much higher risks of being in the vicinity of infected people because it continues to spread. The number of cumulative “cases” in California has gone from 1 million at the end of November to 3 million at the end of January with a doubling time of about 1 month. That means that by the end of February it is likely to be 6 million and by the end of March perhaps 12 million cases. “Cases” means those that have been infected and become sick enough to need treatment. Those make up about 10% of the population of infected people. There seems to be no particularly great statistics available about this, but it is pretty clear that within a month or so it is reasonable to assume that almost everyone that has any exposure risk will be infected. It will no longer be 1 in a 100, it will be 1 in 1. So the question will then become whether or not you trust your life with whatever protective measures you are implementing.

The thing is that there is no possibility of vaccines having any appreciable impact on this in a statistical sense. Perhaps it will provide protection for those that are vaccinated, but those will not be available in anything like the numbers that will be needed as the infection rates spike in the coming weeks.

I think that this is the time to be ultra conservative, not a time to be complacent that since we haven’t gotten sick our approach to protection is good enough. Most likely we just haven’t yet been in the approximate vicinity of infected people. That will change quickly.